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upsets happen all the time...

Posted on: November 28, 2024 at 09:56:50 CT
zounami MU
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models cannot predict the future, they can only estimate what's most likely

A model would predict that 10 coin flips would result in 5 heads and 5 tails, but simulations and real-life experiments will produce all kinds of different outcomes ranging from 0 heads to 10. That doesn't mean an expectation of 5 heads is "wrong".
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Bring me the head of Greg Sankey. - RayKinsella1922 SEC - 11/27 10:24:15
     Everything has been predictable - KC rules MU - 11/27 11:48:15
          Mainly it's b/c the strongest conference got even stronger - zounami MU - 11/27 11:49:43
               RE: Mainly it's b/c the strongest conference got even stronger - KC rules MU - 11/27 11:51:25
                    Wrong. The SEC is an outlier according to the computers... - zounami MU - 11/27 11:54:58
                         RE: Wrong. The SEC is an outlier according to the computers... - KC rules MU - 11/27 11:57:28
                              USC also beat LSU - Genco98 MU - 11/27 13:27:28
                                   How dare you stand in the way of zounamdick and his - tigerman81 MU - 11/27 14:25:10
                              The SEC, collectively, played 64 non-conference games. (nm) - zounami MU - 11/27 11:59:46
                                   RE: The SEC, collectively, played 64 non-conference games. (nm) - KC rules MU - 11/27 12:06:46
                                        A 1-2 record vs the Big XII isn't very impressive. (nm) - JeffB MU - 11/27 14:18:38
                                             RE: A 1-2 record vs the Big XII isn't very impressive. (nm) - KC rules MU - 11/27 14:22:49
                                                  The B1G is extremely weak this year. Its 4th best team is - zounami MU - 11/28 10:03:15
                                        This shows why computer models are far more precise... - zounami MU - 11/27 12:10:44
                                             RE: This shows why computer models are far more precise... - KC rules MU - 11/27 12:15:50
                                                  you're proving my point (nm) - zounami MU - 11/27 12:34:12
                                                       I'm not sure how - KC rules MU - 11/27 12:40:48
                                                            Don't waste your time. If a computer told him he was a lady - tigerman81 MU - 11/27 14:27:37
     We sure don’t need to be in another conference ruined by Tx(nm) - tigersailor MU - 11/27 11:38:06
     How do you reduce something that never was? (nm) - Lt. J. Dangle MU - 11/27 10:54:09
     Until there is an objective system with mathemtical - Genco98 MU - 11/27 10:53:19
          RE: Until there is an objective system with mathemtical - CPA MU - 11/27 11:03:21
               Earn with the humans and "eye test"? - Genco98 MU - 11/27 11:33:29
                    RE: Earn with the humans and "eye test"? - CPA MU - 11/27 11:38:58
                         We can agree to disagree - Genco98 MU - 11/27 13:02:04
                              RE: We can agree to disagree - CPA MU - 11/27 14:33:59
                                   That is your assumption - Genco98 MU - 11/27 14:39:11
                                        RE: That is your assumption - CPA MU - 11/27 15:02:17
                                             I have no problem with the 9-7 Giants wiining - Genco98 MU - 11/27 15:23:21
                                                  RE: I have no problem with the 9-7 Giants wiining - CPA MU - 11/28 10:09:21
          That would only be fair if all divisions were equal strength - zounami MU - 11/27 10:54:15
               Just like the NFL it will cyclical - Genco98 MU - 11/27 11:03:13
                    RE: Just like the NFL it will cyclical - CPA MU - 11/27 11:34:15
                         The SEC will disagree that it's "fine as it is" if deserving - zounami MU - 11/27 11:38:08
                              RE: The SEC will disagree that it's "fine as it is" if deserving - KC rules MU - 11/27 11:48:59
                                   in what way, then? (nm) - zounami MU - 11/27 11:50:17
                                        RE: in what way, then? (nm) - KC rules MU - 11/27 11:53:28
                                             RE: in what way, then? (nm) - zounami MU - 11/27 11:56:19
                              RE: The SEC will disagree that it's "fine as it is" if deserving - CPA MU - 11/27 11:44:42
                                   The current CFP deal ends after next year. Sankey will - zounami MU - 11/27 11:48:21
                                        RE: The current CFP deal ends after next year. Sankey will - CPA MU - 11/27 11:56:09
                                             The SEC would be fine. The other "playoff"... - zounami MU - 11/27 11:58:51
                                                  RE: The SEC would be fine. The other "playoff"... - CPA MU - 11/27 14:39:43
                         You don't think there would be interest in a 4 team - Genco98 MU - 11/27 11:37:49
                              RE: You don't think there would be interest in a 4 team - CPA MU - 11/27 11:51:49
                                   I mean right now they’re *****ing about having - Genco98 MU - 11/27 14:42:07
                                   It is a subjective system that has total "imbalances" - Genco98 MU - 11/27 13:00:43
                              The divisions would not be competitively balanced... - zounami MU - 11/27 11:38:43
                                   The divisions absolutely would be balanced - Genco98 MU - 11/27 19:11:56
     There are 4 solutions to the problem you're describing... - zounami MU - 11/27 10:43:03
          RE: There are 4 solutions to the problem you're describing... - CPA MU - 11/27 15:19:13
          re: (2) Switching to computer models for ranking & selection - JeffB MU - 11/27 11:06:54
               The sample size is large enough by the end of the season. (nm) - zounami MU - 11/27 11:09:11
                    How many games against peers did the SEC & B1G have this - JeffB MU - 11/27 11:38:34
                         The teams are "well connected" by the end of the year... - zounami MU - 11/27 11:40:09
                              That works a lot better in basketball where they play a lot - JeffB MU - 11/27 11:43:54
                                   "Does [one game] prove A&M is far superior to Auburn?"... - zounami MU - 11/27 11:46:56
                                        The well connected computer models predicted an ATM victory. - JeffB MU - 11/27 13:19:41
                                             upsets happen all the time... - zounami MU - 11/28 09:56:50
                              Sure because that whole connection between Vandy, Bama - Lt. J. Dangle MU - 11/27 11:43:17
                                   yes, the model is able to look at *all* the data... - zounami MU - 11/27 11:44:49
                                        I don't care if it is human or computers, using transitive - Lt. J. Dangle MU - 11/27 11:50:15
                                             That's not how computer models work. You're oversimplifying - zounami MU - 11/27 11:50:55
                                                  There are many many different computer models and each - Lt. J. Dangle MU - 11/27 11:54:11
                                                       That's why the BCS used a composite of several different - zounami MU - 11/27 12:01:52
                                                            Funny you mentioned the BCS - tigerman81 MU - 11/27 14:41:42
                                                                 The BCS didn't allow the models to factor in point margins - zounami MU - 11/28 09:51:23
          You and your computer models. Computers once told me that - Lt. J. Dangle MU - 11/27 10:57:37
               They're more objective and accurate than human polls. (nm) - zounami MU - 11/27 11:05:28
                    They do exactly what they are told to do (nm) - Lt. J. Dangle MU - 11/27 11:07:03
                         with extreme precision & accuracy (nm) - zounami MU - 11/27 11:08:28
                              So the founding fathers were black? (nm) - Lt. J. Dangle MU - 11/27 11:19:59
                                   The math doesn't add up. Swimming pools and credit scores - McMuffin MU - 11/27 11:23:19
                              "Extreme". So you think Kst is a South Carolina loss - Eggs MU - 11/27 11:16:16
                                   btw, do you not agree with the model's Top 12? (nm) - zounami MU - 11/27 11:28:18
                                   Yes... after SMU at #11, it gets questionable... - zounami MU - 11/27 11:27:27
     Let's let the SEC teams who do get in dominate - Gavin Citrus MU - 11/27 10:33:05
          non sequitur (nm) - zounami MU - 11/27 11:06:21
               It would help our case, at least in public opinion, which - JeffB MU - 11/27 11:08:57
                    Not necessarily. If the SEC dominates *despite* having... - zounami MU - 11/27 11:21:59
                         Well you truly never know - Gavin Citrus MU - 11/27 12:04:30
     tl;dr (nm) - phrejd KC - 11/27 10:26:48
          it's like 8 sentences (nm) - zounami MU - 11/27 10:31:06
               Is it "like" 8 sentences or is it like 8 "sentences"? - phrejd KC - 11/27 10:38:42
          It's too complicated for you anyway - good choice. - RayKinsella1922 SEC - 11/27 10:28:07
               It's cute when you do this - phrejd KC - 11/27 10:39:16




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