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What’s the predicted outcome

Posted on: January 29, 2024 at 20:28:32 CT
haeffb MU
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of a single coin flip?

You can’t tell, because each flip is random. Your model is of no value in predicting the next outcome. Statistics analyze the past, they don’t predict the future.

Regardless, Pomeroy’s own definition of the “luck” metric:

” Teams are ranked by the difference between expected winning percentage (as determined by Mr. Gauss) and actual winning percentage.

That is the definition of the error in his model compared to reality. Calling it luck just hides what it is.

This Mizzou team isn’t unlucky. It’s just physically unable to finish in close games. Why that is so can be debated. But it’s not fate.
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180° swing in Kenpom "luck" from last year to this year... - zounami MU - 1/29 10:33:04
     There isn't much luck when you are always down 10 at the... - BandG MU - 1/29 20:23:44
     It's more a matter of talent or lack thereof - hou4mu MU - 1/29 14:59:24
     Luck doesn’t really measure luck per se - FIJItiger MU - 1/29 13:13:19
          I don’t think it measures coaching - haeffb MU - 1/29 15:47:43
          if probabilities are known, then "luck" can be measured... - zounami MU - 1/29 13:18:50
               RE: if probabilities are known, then "luck" can be measured... - FIJItiger MU - 1/29 13:27:16
                    The current Kenpom Top 10 has 2 teams below 100 - haeffb MU - 1/29 15:51:26
                         exactly... there's no correlation between the "luck" metric - zounami MU - 1/29 17:24:04
                              To be perfectly clear - haeffb MU - 1/29 18:16:51
                                   Pomeroy calls it "luck" because there's no better way to - zounami MU - 1/29 18:28:05
                                        A better way is “error” (nm) - haeffb MU - 1/29 18:35:49
                                             lol, you should email KP and let him know that he doesn't - zounami MU - 1/29 18:47:39
                                                  That is quite literally what it measures. - haeffb MU - 1/29 18:57:01
                                                       Your understanding of it is flawed. What's the expected - zounami MU - 1/29 19:40:46
                                                            What’s the predicted outcome - haeffb MU - 1/29 20:28:32
                    if "luck" measured coaching prowess, then there would be - zounami MU - 1/29 13:58:34
     Correct,UCF,Tenn×2 etc... this year only bad luck(nm) - oldtgr MU - 1/29 12:44:53
     This stat does not surprise me(nm) - DevilsAdvocate KC - 1/29 12:30:49
     You are what your record says you are - last year we were - alstl MU - 1/29 11:56:29
          win-loss record is important, but it doesn't tell the whole - zounami MU - 1/29 13:09:13
               That's true but they held their own in the conference(nm) - alstl MU - 1/29 13:27:25
     Every coach we have had has A bad year. Some more than - thytiger MU - 1/29 11:21:10
          I could see having a guy like that though on the team - Genco98 MU - 1/29 11:32:21
     Ask your mom for your morning meds (nm) - ChinaTiger KC - 1/29 11:00:54
          such a low IQ reply (nm) - zounami MU - 1/29 11:02:05
               Just yell up to her from the basement - ChinaTiger KC - 1/29 11:12:06
     Ball don't lie - Gavin Citrus MU - 1/29 10:34:05
          Sports involve probabilities, and when probabilities defy - zounami MU - 1/29 10:36:36
               Probabilities can’t defy the odds - haeffb MU - 1/29 15:37:02
                    (1) correct, "probabilities" should have been "outcome"... - zounami MU - 1/29 17:09:54
                         Is it a lucky break? - haeffb MU - 1/29 18:18:43
                              lol, you can't be serious (nm) - zounami MU - 1/29 18:32:27
                                   Why can I not? Do you think past performance predicts - haeffb MU - 1/29 18:51:52
               Harder to have consistent bad luck in basketball - KC rules MU - 1/29 10:49:30
                    On tv they said Mizzou’s average deficit is 4 points - wu-tangtiger MU - 1/29 10:52:55
                         We are not getting down by a lot but we also are - KC rules MU - 1/29 11:20:42
                              Mizzou had USC beat at home - wu-tangtiger MU - 1/29 11:33:20
               just the opposite of football - Fire Marshall Bill MU - 1/29 10:42:19
                    absolutely, and I pointed that out in '22... - zounami MU - 1/29 10:43:13




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