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if probabilities are known, then "luck" can be measured...

Posted on: January 29, 2024 at 13:18:50 CT

zounami MU

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M.O.B. Votes:

statistically... and I think it's the best way to describe this particular stat (and evidently, Ken Pomeroy does as well)

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MESSAGE THREAD

180° swing in Kenpom "luck" from last year to this year... - zounami MU - 1/29 10:33:04

There isn't much luck when you are always down 10 at the... - BandG MU - 1/29 20:23:44

It's more a matter of talent or lack thereof - hou4mu MU - 1/29 14:59:24

Luck doesn’t really measure luck per se - FIJItiger MU

- 1/29 13:13:19

I don’t think it measures coaching - haeffb MU - 1/29 15:47:43

if probabilities are known, then "luck" can be measured... - zounami MU - 1/29 13:18:50

RE: if probabilities are known, then "luck" can be measured... - FIJItiger MU

- 1/29 13:27:16

The current Kenpom Top 10 has 2 teams below 100 - haeffb MU - 1/29 15:51:26

exactly... there's no correlation between the "luck" metric - zounami MU - 1/29 17:24:04

To be perfectly clear - haeffb MU - 1/29 18:16:51

Pomeroy calls it "luck" because there's no better way to - zounami MU - 1/29 18:28:05

A better way is “error” (nm) - haeffb MU - 1/29 18:35:49

lol, you should email KP and let him know that he doesn't - zounami MU - 1/29 18:47:39

That is quite literally what it measures. - haeffb MU - 1/29 18:57:01

Your understanding of it is flawed. What's the expected - zounami MU - 1/29 19:40:46

What’s the predicted outcome - haeffb MU - 1/29 20:28:32

if "luck" measured coaching prowess, then there would be - zounami MU - 1/29 13:58:34

Correct,UCF,Tenn×2 etc... this year only bad luck(nm) - oldtgr MU - 1/29 12:44:53

This stat does not surprise me(nm) - DevilsAdvocate KC - 1/29 12:30:49

You are what your record says you are - last year we were - alstl MU - 1/29 11:56:29

win-loss record is important, but it doesn't tell the whole - zounami MU - 1/29 13:09:13

That's true but they held their own in the conference(nm) - alstl MU - 1/29 13:27:25

Every coach we have had has A bad year. Some more than - thytiger MU - 1/29 11:21:10

I could see having a guy like that though on the team - Genco98 MU - 1/29 11:32:21

Ask your mom for your morning meds (nm) - ChinaTiger KC - 1/29 11:00:54

such a low IQ reply (nm) - zounami MU - 1/29 11:02:05

Just yell up to her from the basement - ChinaTiger KC - 1/29 11:12:06

Ball don't lie - Gavin Citrus MU - 1/29 10:34:05

Sports involve probabilities, and when probabilities defy - zounami MU - 1/29 10:36:36

Probabilities can’t defy the odds - haeffb MU - 1/29 15:37:02

(1) correct, "probabilities" should have been "outcome"... - zounami MU - 1/29 17:09:54

Is it a lucky break? - haeffb MU - 1/29 18:18:43

lol, you can't be serious (nm) - zounami MU - 1/29 18:32:27

Why can I not? Do you think past performance predicts - haeffb MU - 1/29 18:51:52

Harder to have consistent bad luck in basketball - KC rules MU - 1/29 10:49:30

On tv they said Mizzou’s average deficit is 4 points - wu-tangtiger MU - 1/29 10:52:55

We are not getting down by a lot but we also are - KC rules MU - 1/29 11:20:42

Mizzou had USC beat at home - wu-tangtiger MU - 1/29 11:33:20

just the opposite of football - Fire Marshall Bill MU - 1/29 10:42:19

absolutely, and I pointed that out in '22... - zounami MU - 1/29 10:43:13