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I would guess that the infection rate would be quite a bit

Posted on: April 23, 2020 at 00:12:44 CT
JeffB MU
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higher than 5% nationally if the R0 is as high as some studies have predicted... eg. 4 or 5 and the nation starts to open back up as it will undoubtedly have to do.

New York is more congested, of course, but they had an estimated 15% infection rate over the course of a month and a half or so didn't they?

On the bright side, it sounds like some vaccines may be available as early as September and an antibody treatment that is very promising could be available in mass production by September. Either of those could be game changers, but if both pan out it could just about put an end to this.
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If the First Deaths to Wuhan Virus Were in February in Calif - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:21:56
     It has been long known the first US case was in mid January - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 22:39:13
          It was way before that (nm) - Sal MU - 4/23 07:28:42
          It has to do with how many infections there are, which affec - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:53:30
               The Santa Clara study, like the now withdrawn Stockholm - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 23:30:46
                    Thanks. Interesting read. I don't know if it is garbage, but - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:04:59
               But unlke the flu - meatiger MU - 4/22 22:58:58
                    The way it hit New York and northern Italy also doesn't seem - JeffB MU - 4/22 23:03:52
                         New York has 20,354 deaths and a population of 19,378,102 - JeffB MU - 4/22 23:14:39
                              One limited study - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:17:51
                                   So how's that work for the general population - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:19:45
                                        I would guess that the infection rate would be quite a bit - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:12:44
                                             I don't see either of those being widespread that quick - meatiger MU - 4/23 00:18:32
                                        a bit tricky - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:28:40
                                             I hope the mortality rate is a lot lower than 4%. (nm) - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:16:19
                                                  that was 0.4%(nm) - meatiger MU - 4/23 00:18:53
                                             Ok, I was about 1/2 that, assuming a 5% infection rate(nm) - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:31:41
                                                  you might be right - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:35:13
                                                       I think it's the great unknown because - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:40:37
                                                            And, we don't yet know whether you can get it again - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:41:45
                                                                 RE: And, we don't yet know whether you can get it again - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:49:08
                         NY is such an outlier - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:07:22
                              But I think it still gives us some valuable data on things - JeffB MU - 4/22 23:51:42
                              Meat packing plants are a problem - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:15:14
     I am mixed on this - meatiger MU - 4/22 22:28:33
          It is confusing, but as you say there are apparently 3 strai - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:36:40
               No there aren't.(nm) - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 22:38:46
                    That's what they are saying here: - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:56:28
                         There aren't three strains. It is based on a - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 23:27:20
                              OK, thanks. (nm) - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:14:51
                         China is now in lockdown in their northern regions - Mormad MU - 4/22 22:57:40
                              It seems quite believable to me. This is very contagious. (nm) - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:58:25




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