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The way it hit New York and northern Italy also doesn't seem

Posted on: April 22, 2020 at 23:03:52 CT
JeffB MU
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to fit the theory that the number of deaths is more factor of a very high spread rate with a fairly similar death rate to the flu... along with a fairly high number of people who get it but are asymptomatic, or have relatively mild symptoms.

If that was the case, it would seem that they would have rapidly peaked and started dropping much sooner as at least some herd immunity starts developing.
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If the First Deaths to Wuhan Virus Were in February in Calif - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:21:56
     It has been long known the first US case was in mid January - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 22:39:13
          It was way before that (nm) - Sal MU - 4/23 07:28:42
          It has to do with how many infections there are, which affec - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:53:30
               The Santa Clara study, like the now withdrawn Stockholm - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 23:30:46
                    Thanks. Interesting read. I don't know if it is garbage, but - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:04:59
               But unlke the flu - meatiger MU - 4/22 22:58:58
                    The way it hit New York and northern Italy also doesn't seem - JeffB MU - 4/22 23:03:52
                         New York has 20,354 deaths and a population of 19,378,102 - JeffB MU - 4/22 23:14:39
                              One limited study - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:17:51
                                   So how's that work for the general population - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:19:45
                                        I would guess that the infection rate would be quite a bit - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:12:44
                                             I don't see either of those being widespread that quick - meatiger MU - 4/23 00:18:32
                                        a bit tricky - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:28:40
                                             I hope the mortality rate is a lot lower than 4%. (nm) - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:16:19
                                                  that was 0.4%(nm) - meatiger MU - 4/23 00:18:53
                                             Ok, I was about 1/2 that, assuming a 5% infection rate(nm) - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:31:41
                                                  you might be right - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:35:13
                                                       I think it's the great unknown because - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:40:37
                                                            And, we don't yet know whether you can get it again - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:41:45
                                                                 RE: And, we don't yet know whether you can get it again - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:49:08
                         NY is such an outlier - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:07:22
                              But I think it still gives us some valuable data on things - JeffB MU - 4/22 23:51:42
                              Meat packing plants are a problem - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:15:14
     I am mixed on this - meatiger MU - 4/22 22:28:33
          It is confusing, but as you say there are apparently 3 strai - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:36:40
               No there aren't.(nm) - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 22:38:46
                    That's what they are saying here: - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:56:28
                         There aren't three strains. It is based on a - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 23:27:20
                              OK, thanks. (nm) - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:14:51
                         China is now in lockdown in their northern regions - Mormad MU - 4/22 22:57:40
                              It seems quite believable to me. This is very contagious. (nm) - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:58:25




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