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you might be right

Posted on: April 22, 2020 at 23:35:13 CT

meatiger MU

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M.O.B. Votes:

I went with 15% because if I remember correct, when you look at the big outbreaks (cruise, navy, New York), that seems to be the infection rate. But in less populated/crowded area would be lower.

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MESSAGE THREAD

If the First Deaths to Wuhan Virus Were in February in Calif - JeffB MU

- 4/22 22:21:56

It has been long known the first US case was in mid January - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 22:39:13

It was way before that (nm) - Sal MU

- 4/23 07:28:42

It has to do with how many infections there are, which affec - JeffB MU

- 4/22 22:53:30

The Santa Clara study, like the now withdrawn Stockholm - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 23:30:46

Thanks. Interesting read. I don't know if it is garbage, but - JeffB MU

- 4/23 00:04:59

But unlke the flu - meatiger MU - 4/22 22:58:58

The way it hit New York and northern Italy also doesn't seem - JeffB MU

- 4/22 23:03:52

New York has 20,354 deaths and a population of 19,378,102 - JeffB MU

- 4/22 23:14:39

One limited study - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:17:51

So how's that work for the general population - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:19:45

I would guess that the infection rate would be quite a bit - JeffB MU

- 4/23 00:12:44

I don't see either of those being widespread that quick - meatiger MU - 4/23 00:18:32

a bit tricky - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:28:40

I hope the mortality rate is a lot lower than 4%. (nm) - JeffB MU

- 4/23 00:16:19

that was 0.4%(nm) - meatiger MU - 4/23 00:18:53

Ok, I was about 1/2 that, assuming a 5% infection rate(nm) - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:31:41

you might be right - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:35:13

I think it's the great unknown because - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:40:37

And, we don't yet know whether you can get it again - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:41:45

RE: And, we don't yet know whether you can get it again - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:49:08

NY is such an outlier - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:07:22

But I think it still gives us some valuable data on things - JeffB MU

- 4/22 23:51:42

Meat packing plants are a problem - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:15:14

I am mixed on this - meatiger MU - 4/22 22:28:33

It is confusing, but as you say there are apparently 3 strai - JeffB MU

- 4/22 22:36:40

No there aren't.(nm) - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 22:38:46

That's what they are saying here: - JeffB MU

- 4/22 22:56:28

There aren't three strains. It is based on a - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 23:27:20

OK, thanks. (nm) - JeffB MU

- 4/23 00:14:51

China is now in lockdown in their northern regions - Mormad MU - 4/22 22:57:40

It seems quite believable to me. This is very contagious. (nm) - JeffB MU

- 4/22 22:58:25