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New York has 20,354 deaths and a population of 19,378,102

Posted on: April 22, 2020 at 23:14:39 CT
JeffB MU
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which would equate to a little over .1% of the population has already died... assuming those deaths are reasonably close to accurate, though we know there is some guesswork & potentially some shenanigans there.

If the actual CFR for the virus for the overall population is roughly .1% as the most optimistic projections are calling for, that would mean that roughly 100% of New York State has already been infected.

That seems highly unlikely, of course, and if true the death rate and new infection rate should already be plummeting... to near zero by now... but they had 661 deaths today.

I don't know how that compares to earlier, but it is still more than twice as much as the next closest state, New Jersey, which came in at 310 new deaths today.

Unless they are WAY over counting deaths due to CV-19, it seems to me that the overall CFR has to be quite a bit higher than .1%, at least for New York.
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If the First Deaths to Wuhan Virus Were in February in Calif - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:21:56
     It has been long known the first US case was in mid January - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 22:39:13
          It was way before that (nm) - Sal MU - 4/23 07:28:42
          It has to do with how many infections there are, which affec - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:53:30
               The Santa Clara study, like the now withdrawn Stockholm - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 23:30:46
                    Thanks. Interesting read. I don't know if it is garbage, but - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:04:59
               But unlke the flu - meatiger MU - 4/22 22:58:58
                    The way it hit New York and northern Italy also doesn't seem - JeffB MU - 4/22 23:03:52
                         New York has 20,354 deaths and a population of 19,378,102 - JeffB MU - 4/22 23:14:39
                              One limited study - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:17:51
                                   So how's that work for the general population - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:19:45
                                        I would guess that the infection rate would be quite a bit - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:12:44
                                             I don't see either of those being widespread that quick - meatiger MU - 4/23 00:18:32
                                        a bit tricky - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:28:40
                                             I hope the mortality rate is a lot lower than 4%. (nm) - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:16:19
                                                  that was 0.4%(nm) - meatiger MU - 4/23 00:18:53
                                             Ok, I was about 1/2 that, assuming a 5% infection rate(nm) - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:31:41
                                                  you might be right - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:35:13
                                                       I think it's the great unknown because - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:40:37
                                                            And, we don't yet know whether you can get it again - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:41:45
                                                                 RE: And, we don't yet know whether you can get it again - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:49:08
                         NY is such an outlier - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:07:22
                              But I think it still gives us some valuable data on things - JeffB MU - 4/22 23:51:42
                              Meat packing plants are a problem - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:15:14
     I am mixed on this - meatiger MU - 4/22 22:28:33
          It is confusing, but as you say there are apparently 3 strai - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:36:40
               No there aren't.(nm) - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 22:38:46
                    That's what they are saying here: - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:56:28
                         There aren't three strains. It is based on a - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 23:27:20
                              OK, thanks. (nm) - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:14:51
                         China is now in lockdown in their northern regions - Mormad MU - 4/22 22:57:40
                              It seems quite believable to me. This is very contagious. (nm) - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:58:25




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