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It has to do with how many infections there are, which affec

Posted on: April 22, 2020 at 22:53:30 CT
JeffB MU
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ts other key stats they've only been able to guess at.

The case fatality rate (CFR) is # of deaths/# of infections. If the number of infections is much higher than they thought that would indicate that the CFR is much lower.

There are some indications that this may be true. In northern Italy a Red Cross station was set up and 40 out of 60 volunteers tested positive for antibodies. None of them had any inkling that they had ever been infected.

Someone posted yesterday (?) about a high rate of positive tests among the inmates in a prison... far higher than those who had been previously diagnosed.

A doctor in California did a sampling in a county there and had a 2.81% positive rate for antibodies, which he said was 50 times to 85 times higher than the expected rate based upon current deaths and the estimated CFR. Assuming his test was reasonably accurate he said that would conservatively put the CFR around .1%, +/- a little bit, or fairly close to the flu.

It might also indicate that the R0 spread rate was higher than originally estimated.
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If the First Deaths to Wuhan Virus Were in February in Calif - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:21:56
     It has been long known the first US case was in mid January - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 22:39:13
          It was way before that (nm) - Sal MU - 4/23 07:28:42
          It has to do with how many infections there are, which affec - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:53:30
               The Santa Clara study, like the now withdrawn Stockholm - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 23:30:46
                    Thanks. Interesting read. I don't know if it is garbage, but - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:04:59
               But unlke the flu - meatiger MU - 4/22 22:58:58
                    The way it hit New York and northern Italy also doesn't seem - JeffB MU - 4/22 23:03:52
                         New York has 20,354 deaths and a population of 19,378,102 - JeffB MU - 4/22 23:14:39
                              One limited study - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:17:51
                                   So how's that work for the general population - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:19:45
                                        I would guess that the infection rate would be quite a bit - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:12:44
                                             I don't see either of those being widespread that quick - meatiger MU - 4/23 00:18:32
                                        a bit tricky - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:28:40
                                             I hope the mortality rate is a lot lower than 4%. (nm) - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:16:19
                                                  that was 0.4%(nm) - meatiger MU - 4/23 00:18:53
                                             Ok, I was about 1/2 that, assuming a 5% infection rate(nm) - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:31:41
                                                  you might be right - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:35:13
                                                       I think it's the great unknown because - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:40:37
                                                            And, we don't yet know whether you can get it again - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:41:45
                                                                 RE: And, we don't yet know whether you can get it again - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:49:08
                         NY is such an outlier - Mormad MU - 4/22 23:07:22
                              But I think it still gives us some valuable data on things - JeffB MU - 4/22 23:51:42
                              Meat packing plants are a problem - meatiger MU - 4/22 23:15:14
     I am mixed on this - meatiger MU - 4/22 22:28:33
          It is confusing, but as you say there are apparently 3 strai - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:36:40
               No there aren't.(nm) - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 22:38:46
                    That's what they are saying here: - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:56:28
                         There aren't three strains. It is based on a - TigerMatt STL - 4/22 23:27:20
                              OK, thanks. (nm) - JeffB MU - 4/23 00:14:51
                         China is now in lockdown in their northern regions - Mormad MU - 4/22 22:57:40
                              It seems quite believable to me. This is very contagious. (nm) - JeffB MU - 4/22 22:58:25




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