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But I think it still gives us some valuable data on things
Posted on: April 22, 2020 at 23:51:42 CT
JeffB MU
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like a floor for the CFR... unless their death rate is either grossly inflated or significantly worse than it will be elsewhere.
But they have a pretty good medical system, I believe, and were not overwhelmed to the point that Italy was. It sounds like people weren't dying just because they didn't have enough hospital beds, ventilators or doctors and nurses.
New York is pretty big, so it's not what one might consider a small sample size.
If the U.S. ended up with the same death rate for our population but it just took longer for the same percentage of the population to get infected we would end up with 346,619 deaths... but as noted New York is still having a lot of deaths per day... 661 today, so the US total would still be climbing as well.
There are other two examples that have similar deaths per million population to New York, but both are much smaller.
San Marino has a population of 33,562 and has had 40 deaths so far. That would equate to a CFR of .119% if everyone in the country had been infected. I don't know what their demographics are relative to the US, nor how good their medical system is, and it is a relatively small sample size but it seems to give credence to the idea that the CFR is likely to be .1% or higher. If the entire population wasn't infected, then it would be higher than that, of course. If it was nearly 100% infected over a couple of months it would seem to indicate that the R0 is higher than they are estimating now and the US will probably have most people infected unless they come out with a vaccine pretty soon or keep almost everyone locked down until they do.
If the U.S. had San Marino's CFR we would end up with 393,302 deaths.
The least representative, but perhaps still useful info would be the Diamond Princess. It is a small sample size and the passenger demographics are skewed somewhat to the older, more vulnerable brackets, though they did had younger people aboard, including kids, one of whom tested positive.
The Diamond Princess had:
3711 passenger and crew
13 deaths
55 active cases
7 are still in serious or critical condition
712 tested positive for coronavirus. They were tested every day from the time the original
passenger tested positive after disembarkment.
Using those numbers we would get a 1.83% death rate using their traditional model of deaths/ those who tested positive. They did test everyone repeatedly so theoretically it should reasonably accurate.
If we just assumed that every single person on the ship was infected we would come up with a CFR of .35%, still much higher than the optimistic .1% CFR some are thinking might be reasonable.
The age distributions are skewed a bit towards the older ages vis a vis the US population as a whole. On the other hand there may be additional deaths as they still have 7 cases in serious or critical condition, and a total of 55 who have not officially recovered yet.
If the US ended up with the same official CFR as on the Diamond Princess... deaths/# tested positive we would have about 6,025,280.90 deaths.
If we used the entire number of passengers and crew as the denominator, assuming all were infected, or that the US would end up with roughly the same % infected and had a similar death rate (also assuming no more of the Diamond Princess infected die) we would end up with about 1,156,023 deaths in the US.
But they have a pretty good medical system, I believe, and were not overwhelmed to the point that Italy was. It sounds like people weren't dying just because they didn't have enough hospital beds, ventilators or doctors and nurses.
New York is pretty big, so it's not what one might consider a small sample size.
If the U.S. ended up with the same death rate for our population but it just took longer for the same percentage of the population to get infected we would end up with 346,619 deaths... but as noted New York is still having a lot of deaths per day... 661 today, so the US total would still be climbing as well.
There are other two examples that have similar deaths per million population to New York, but both are much smaller.
San Marino has a population of 33,562 and has had 40 deaths so far. That would equate to a CFR of .119% if everyone in the country had been infected. I don't know what their demographics are relative to the US, nor how good their medical system is, and it is a relatively small sample size but it seems to give credence to the idea that the CFR is likely to be .1% or higher. If the entire population wasn't infected, then it would be higher than that, of course. If it was nearly 100% infected over a couple of months it would seem to indicate that the R0 is higher than they are estimating now and the US will probably have most people infected unless they come out with a vaccine pretty soon or keep almost everyone locked down until they do.
If the U.S. had San Marino's CFR we would end up with 393,302 deaths.
The least representative, but perhaps still useful info would be the Diamond Princess. It is a small sample size and the passenger demographics are skewed somewhat to the older, more vulnerable brackets, though they did had younger people aboard, including kids, one of whom tested positive.
The Diamond Princess had:
3711 passenger and crew
13 deaths
55 active cases
7 are still in serious or critical condition
712 tested positive for coronavirus. They were tested every day from the time the original
passenger tested positive after disembarkment.
Using those numbers we would get a 1.83% death rate using their traditional model of deaths/ those who tested positive. They did test everyone repeatedly so theoretically it should reasonably accurate.
If we just assumed that every single person on the ship was infected we would come up with a CFR of .35%, still much higher than the optimistic .1% CFR some are thinking might be reasonable.
The age distributions are skewed a bit towards the older ages vis a vis the US population as a whole. On the other hand there may be additional deaths as they still have 7 cases in serious or critical condition, and a total of 55 who have not officially recovered yet.
If the US ended up with the same official CFR as on the Diamond Princess... deaths/# tested positive we would have about 6,025,280.90 deaths.
If we used the entire number of passengers and crew as the denominator, assuming all were infected, or that the US would end up with roughly the same % infected and had a similar death rate (also assuming no more of the Diamond Princess infected die) we would end up with about 1,156,023 deaths in the US.
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But I think it still gives us some valuable data on things - JeffB MU - 4/22 23:51:42