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People have to make assumptions all of the time. Scientists,

Posted on: May 23, 2020 at 22:27:38 CT
JeffB MU
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business leaders, and individuals all have to work with less than fully comprehensive data quite frequently.

The CDC gathered the data, which are all facts, of course, and crunched the numbers. They know full well that the numbers will continue to fluctuate some and will gradually get more accurate over time. Even at "the end" or a year or two in there will be some fuzziness to them. But that doesn't mean that they are not fact based. It also most certainly doesn't mean that they are useless or should be ignored.

Rocket scientists use tons of data and need supercomputers to do their calculations. Some measurements may not be quite as precise as they would like them to be in a perfect world, and they have to make some assumptions here and there... and on occasion things can go wrong despite their strongest efforts at meticulous detail. But that doesn't mean their calculations and assumptions are "not fact based".

The infection rate for our state and for our country are pretty important things to know, wouldn't you agree? Attempting to make our best estimate of a reasonable range for that is something reasonable to do, don't you think?

We have some facts, incomplete though they may be. We have the ability to crunch those numbers and get some sort of ball park idea of what the current infection rate is likely to be. I don't see why there is so much angst in looking at that and sharing it on here. Ideas on how to improve the estimates or to show alternative estimates and so on are certainly welcome, but why are so many so upset about taking a look at things as best we can?
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The CDC's current 'best estimates' for asymptomatic % of - JeffB MU - 5/23 17:13:59
     correct we should not have shut the state down(nm) - TigerFan92 MU - 5/23 21:02:29
          why did you? (nm) - pickle MU - 5/24 08:26:37
          Sweden seems to have done pretty well without shutting - JeffB MU - 5/23 21:06:08
               Missouri hasn't, but we are learning about being under - MUTGR MU - 5/23 21:55:50
                    Who's giving you trouble, some local city, or the state? (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 22:11:11
                         Well, I'm in STL County, and it's Sam Page, unelected - MUTGR MU - 5/23 22:13:40
               Lol what? - Da_Haze KC - 5/23 21:17:29
                    Sweden has fewer deaths per million than Belgium, Spain, - JeffB MU - 5/23 22:09:54
                    Trump agrees with you. - tiger4real MU - 5/23 21:19:16
                         I'm pretty sure the man who went golfing - Da_Haze KC - 5/23 21:21:16
               Im gonna boost my immune system and not give a sh#t - Uncle Fester USMC - 5/23 21:10:13
                    Sounds like a plan. (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 21:11:00
     The CDC also says it assumes that people without symptoms - MizzouTigerz MU - 5/23 20:16:21
          Neither point impacts what I posted as far as I can tell. - JeffB MU - 5/23 20:35:05
               It's hilarious how you use word count to cover for - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 20:37:42
                    You're welcome to your opinion, of course. Hopefully you're - JeffB MU - 5/23 20:40:54
                         When you make assumptions, you cannot say your findings are - MizzouTigerz MU - 5/23 21:29:19
                              People have to make assumptions all of the time. Scientists, - JeffB MU - 5/23 22:27:38
                         'best estimates' (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 20:42:03
                         evidence? lol (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 20:41:20
                              I'm no fan of the CDC, I think they leave a lot to be - JeffB MU - 5/23 20:58:36
                                   To me, the key is fatality rate and who is, on average, - MUTGR MU - 5/23 22:02:30
                                        The case fatality rate is the % diagnosed with it who die. - JeffB MU - 5/23 23:29:10
                                   "best estimates" isn't "evidence" (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 21:02:57
                                        You want the raw data? (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 21:04:19
                                             Stop now please(nm) - tman MU - 5/23 21:07:40
                                             they don't know, Jeff (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 21:05:57
                                             "best estimates" (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 21:05:43
          but Jeff did a bunch of math (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 20:20:05
     Sounds a lot like the flu.nm - tiger4real MU - 5/23 19:10:59
     Careful. People on this board do not know math. Only - HandBanana MU - 5/23 18:45:35
          He's the jebus guy (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 19:21:49
          ^^^ Desperate for people to stay scared ^^^ - RayKinsella1922 SEC - 5/23 18:59:39
               Nope. Exactly the opposite. - HandBanana MU - 5/23 19:22:27
                    The oriiginal Jeebus brand has not been available for some - RayKinsella1922 SEC - 5/23 20:24:16
          Or meezus. Mm - SparkyStalcup MU - 5/23 18:55:07
     You can’t use that blanket number for missouri because - tigerNkc MU - 5/23 18:42:52
          Why do the numbers in the northeast invalidate them for - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:44:34
     Are you sweating it? It's just another virus. You want to - RayKinsella1922 SEC - 5/23 17:47:54
     that's a lot of math built on sand (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 17:22:54
          ^Not good at maff (nm) - HandBanana MU - 5/23 18:46:21
          Not sure about sand, though it's still fairly early in the - JeffB MU - 5/23 17:29:14
               Lol - pickle MU - 5/23 18:10:41
                    Link? (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:14:45
                         it’s in the archives (nm) - pickle MU - 5/23 18:21:42
                              So your lie won't be exposed then. (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:29:20
                                   Jeff, I was here. I remember your same overreaction to ebol - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:37:36
                                        I did in fact point to the potential catastrophe ebola could - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:43:15
                                             lol (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:44:52
                                                  Do you have the ability to expound a little here? - JeffB MU - 5/23 19:45:46
                                                       yes (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 19:55:17
                                             lol (nm) - pickle MU - 5/23 18:44:49
                                   do you need sarcasm explained to you? - pickle MU - 5/23 18:33:01
                                        I think you're starting to lose it pickle. That wasn't sarca - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:36:43
                                             hi pot - ashtray UF - 5/24 10:13:27
                                             jesus ****ing christ you are stupid (nm) - pickle MU - 5/23 18:38:03
                                                  You relish dwelling at the bottom of the logic pyramid - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:46:36
                                                       Jeff, this isn’t a discussion or debate (nm) - pickle MU - 5/23 18:47:56
                                                            This is a political discussion forum. I'm here to discuss. - JeffB MU - 5/23 20:21:39
                                                  he really is dumb to the core. it's almost sad (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:39:43
                                                       and his sychophant joins him at the bottom. - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:47:08
                                                            I'm sorry, Jeff, but you're just not able to follow an - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:49:41
                                                                 Another dodge by the cowardly duo. (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 19:37:30
                    that was a h00t (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:12:17
               why do i need other numbers more reliable to say yours - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 17:30:10
                    You don't need any other figures to go on, of course, if you - JeffB MU - 5/23 17:31:09
                         straw man - pickle MU - 5/23 18:24:04
                              Not even close. If you weren't so dumb/lazy yourself you - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:28:54
                                   it's a straw man because I wasn't arguing other number - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:40:49
                                        You seem to misunderstand either what a straw man argument - JeffB MU - 5/23 20:15:29
                                   it was a straw man - pickle MU - 5/23 18:34:07
                                        Of course, if you were intelligent enough and your assertion - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:40:03
                                             the board doesn’t need me to see how stupid you are (nm) - pickle MU - 5/23 18:46:25
                                                  You should have stopped at the 5th word. (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 20:38:07
                                             you won't understand the explanation I gave because you're - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:41:15
                                                  Or maybe you would realize that your argument was an invalid - JeffB MU - 5/23 20:36:04
                         90 prefers to just ***** and cry - meatiger MU - 5/23 17:37:41
                              did you even read the thread? (nm) - pickle MU - 5/23 18:30:54
                              I was crying? Do you have a comment on his premise - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 17:59:24
                                   Just you crying(nm) - meatiger MU - 5/23 18:22:05
                                        drinking early? (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:23:34
                                             Not at all(nm) - meatiger MU - 5/23 18:24:15
                                                  RE: Not at all(nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:41:30
                                                       Yes i did(nm) - meatiger MU - 5/23 18:53:14
                                                            what part was me crying? (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 19:54:35
                         I'm not flying at all Jeff. You're flying (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 17:33:03
                              I'm sort of flying.(nm) - Toger STL - 5/23 17:59:37
                                   Pretty good stuff? (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:08:41




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