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Neither point impacts what I posted as far as I can tell.

Posted on: May 23, 2020 at 20:35:05 CT
JeffB MU
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Whether people are infectious while asymptomatic is important, of course, but would have no impact upon the calculations of how many people have in fact been infected.

The real issue, of course, is how accurate the CDC "best guesses" are. I'm sure they will be revised some in the future, that is the nature of these things. I do assume, however, that they are of more value than just guessing. In other words, I think they have some value. Even if they're off by 100%, say our current infection rate is 8.5% rather than 4.268% it would still indicate that there's still a long way to go before we hit "herd immunity".

Of course, if they come up with a very effective treatment, and some claim that they already have, or an effective vaccine that many people get, it could become something of a moot point.

But as things stand now, our case fatality rate for Missouri is 5.75% and our Missouri bureaucracy is still fighting doctors who want to prescribe hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 and are asking pharmacists to consider not filling those prescriptions for them if they do.

and yes I know that the case fatality rate is higher than it would be if they tested everyone and caught all of the asymptomatic cases and the ones where people who are infected don't get tested for whatever reason. The infection fatality rate is different than the case fatality rate & both are different than the mortality rate.
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The CDC's current 'best estimates' for asymptomatic % of - JeffB MU - 5/23 17:13:59
     correct we should not have shut the state down(nm) - TigerFan92 MU - 5/23 21:02:29
          why did you? (nm) - pickle MU - 5/24 08:26:37
          Sweden seems to have done pretty well without shutting - JeffB MU - 5/23 21:06:08
               Missouri hasn't, but we are learning about being under - MUTGR MU - 5/23 21:55:50
                    Who's giving you trouble, some local city, or the state? (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 22:11:11
                         Well, I'm in STL County, and it's Sam Page, unelected - MUTGR MU - 5/23 22:13:40
               Lol what? - Da_Haze KC - 5/23 21:17:29
                    Sweden has fewer deaths per million than Belgium, Spain, - JeffB MU - 5/23 22:09:54
                    Trump agrees with you. - tiger4real MU - 5/23 21:19:16
                         I'm pretty sure the man who went golfing - Da_Haze KC - 5/23 21:21:16
               Im gonna boost my immune system and not give a sh#t - Uncle Fester USMC - 5/23 21:10:13
                    Sounds like a plan. (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 21:11:00
     The CDC also says it assumes that people without symptoms - MizzouTigerz MU - 5/23 20:16:21
          Neither point impacts what I posted as far as I can tell. - JeffB MU - 5/23 20:35:05
               It's hilarious how you use word count to cover for - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 20:37:42
                    You're welcome to your opinion, of course. Hopefully you're - JeffB MU - 5/23 20:40:54
                         When you make assumptions, you cannot say your findings are - MizzouTigerz MU - 5/23 21:29:19
                              People have to make assumptions all of the time. Scientists, - JeffB MU - 5/23 22:27:38
                         'best estimates' (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 20:42:03
                         evidence? lol (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 20:41:20
                              I'm no fan of the CDC, I think they leave a lot to be - JeffB MU - 5/23 20:58:36
                                   To me, the key is fatality rate and who is, on average, - MUTGR MU - 5/23 22:02:30
                                        The case fatality rate is the % diagnosed with it who die. - JeffB MU - 5/23 23:29:10
                                   "best estimates" isn't "evidence" (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 21:02:57
                                        You want the raw data? (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 21:04:19
                                             Stop now please(nm) - tman MU - 5/23 21:07:40
                                             they don't know, Jeff (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 21:05:57
                                             "best estimates" (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 21:05:43
          but Jeff did a bunch of math (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 20:20:05
     Sounds a lot like the flu.nm - tiger4real MU - 5/23 19:10:59
     Careful. People on this board do not know math. Only - HandBanana MU - 5/23 18:45:35
          He's the jebus guy (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 19:21:49
          ^^^ Desperate for people to stay scared ^^^ - RayKinsella1922 SEC - 5/23 18:59:39
               Nope. Exactly the opposite. - HandBanana MU - 5/23 19:22:27
                    The oriiginal Jeebus brand has not been available for some - RayKinsella1922 SEC - 5/23 20:24:16
          Or meezus. Mm - SparkyStalcup MU - 5/23 18:55:07
     You can’t use that blanket number for missouri because - tigerNkc MU - 5/23 18:42:52
          Why do the numbers in the northeast invalidate them for - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:44:34
     Are you sweating it? It's just another virus. You want to - RayKinsella1922 SEC - 5/23 17:47:54
     that's a lot of math built on sand (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 17:22:54
          ^Not good at maff (nm) - HandBanana MU - 5/23 18:46:21
          Not sure about sand, though it's still fairly early in the - JeffB MU - 5/23 17:29:14
               Lol - pickle MU - 5/23 18:10:41
                    Link? (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:14:45
                         it’s in the archives (nm) - pickle MU - 5/23 18:21:42
                              So your lie won't be exposed then. (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:29:20
                                   Jeff, I was here. I remember your same overreaction to ebol - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:37:36
                                        I did in fact point to the potential catastrophe ebola could - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:43:15
                                             lol (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:44:52
                                                  Do you have the ability to expound a little here? - JeffB MU - 5/23 19:45:46
                                                       yes (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 19:55:17
                                             lol (nm) - pickle MU - 5/23 18:44:49
                                   do you need sarcasm explained to you? - pickle MU - 5/23 18:33:01
                                        I think you're starting to lose it pickle. That wasn't sarca - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:36:43
                                             hi pot - ashtray UF - 5/24 10:13:27
                                             jesus ****ing christ you are stupid (nm) - pickle MU - 5/23 18:38:03
                                                  You relish dwelling at the bottom of the logic pyramid - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:46:36
                                                       Jeff, this isn’t a discussion or debate (nm) - pickle MU - 5/23 18:47:56
                                                            This is a political discussion forum. I'm here to discuss. - JeffB MU - 5/23 20:21:39
                                                  he really is dumb to the core. it's almost sad (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:39:43
                                                       and his sychophant joins him at the bottom. - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:47:08
                                                            I'm sorry, Jeff, but you're just not able to follow an - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:49:41
                                                                 Another dodge by the cowardly duo. (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 19:37:30
                    that was a h00t (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:12:17
               why do i need other numbers more reliable to say yours - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 17:30:10
                    You don't need any other figures to go on, of course, if you - JeffB MU - 5/23 17:31:09
                         straw man - pickle MU - 5/23 18:24:04
                              Not even close. If you weren't so dumb/lazy yourself you - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:28:54
                                   it's a straw man because I wasn't arguing other number - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:40:49
                                        You seem to misunderstand either what a straw man argument - JeffB MU - 5/23 20:15:29
                                   it was a straw man - pickle MU - 5/23 18:34:07
                                        Of course, if you were intelligent enough and your assertion - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:40:03
                                             the board doesn’t need me to see how stupid you are (nm) - pickle MU - 5/23 18:46:25
                                                  You should have stopped at the 5th word. (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 20:38:07
                                             you won't understand the explanation I gave because you're - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:41:15
                                                  Or maybe you would realize that your argument was an invalid - JeffB MU - 5/23 20:36:04
                         90 prefers to just ***** and cry - meatiger MU - 5/23 17:37:41
                              did you even read the thread? (nm) - pickle MU - 5/23 18:30:54
                              I was crying? Do you have a comment on his premise - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 17:59:24
                                   Just you crying(nm) - meatiger MU - 5/23 18:22:05
                                        drinking early? (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:23:34
                                             Not at all(nm) - meatiger MU - 5/23 18:24:15
                                                  RE: Not at all(nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:41:30
                                                       Yes i did(nm) - meatiger MU - 5/23 18:53:14
                                                            what part was me crying? (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 19:54:35
                         I'm not flying at all Jeff. You're flying (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 17:33:03
                              I'm sort of flying.(nm) - Toger STL - 5/23 17:59:37
                                   Pretty good stuff? (nm) - JeffB MU - 5/23 18:08:41




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