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The CDC's current 'best estimates' for asymptomatic % of

Posted on: May 23, 2020 at 17:13:59 CT

JeffB MU

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infections and the death rate for those that are symptomatic is not good news it would seem to me.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio = 0.004
Percent of infections that are asymptomatic = 35%
---------

If my math is correct that means that Missouri's infection rate as of yesterday would be roughly 4.268%.

That's better than where we started, of course, but still a long way from a decent herd immunity.

Deaths = # symptomatic X .004

therefore:
# symptomatic = deaths/.004

# symptomatic = # infected X .65

therefore:
# infected = # symptomatic/.65

Where I = # infected, S = # symptomatic & D = # of deaths

Missouri total deaths as of 5/22/20: 681

D = 681
S = D/.004
I = S/.65

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Plugging in the numbers I get:

    681 - Deaths
170,250 - # of people who are symptomatic (681/.004) - Official # for yesterday was 11,852 total cases

261,923 - # of infected (170,250/.65)

6,137,428 - Missouri population

4.268% - percent of Missouri population infected and presumably with at least some immunity to SARS CoV-2

Edited by JeffB at 17:23:02 on 05/23/20

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REPLY

MESSAGE THREAD

The CDC's current 'best estimates' for asymptomatic % of - JeffB MU

- 5/23 17:13:59

correct we should not have shut the state down(nm) - TigerFan92 MU - 5/23 21:02:29

why did you? (nm) - pickle MU

- 5/24 08:26:37

Sweden seems to have done pretty well without shutting - JeffB MU

- 5/23 21:06:08

Missouri hasn't, but we are learning about being under - MUTGR MU - 5/23 21:55:50

Who's giving you trouble, some local city, or the state? (nm) - JeffB MU

- 5/23 22:11:11

Well, I'm in STL County, and it's Sam Page, unelected - MUTGR MU - 5/23 22:13:40

Lol what? - Da_Haze KC - 5/23 21:17:29

Sweden has fewer deaths per million than Belgium, Spain, - JeffB MU

- 5/23 22:09:54

Trump agrees with you. - tiger4real MU - 5/23 21:19:16

I'm pretty sure the man who went golfing - Da_Haze KC - 5/23 21:21:16

Im gonna boost my immune system and not give a sh#t - Uncle Fester USMC - 5/23 21:10:13

Sounds like a plan. (nm) - JeffB MU

- 5/23 21:11:00

The CDC also says it assumes that people without symptoms - MizzouTigerz MU

- 5/23 20:16:21

Neither point impacts what I posted as far as I can tell. - JeffB MU

- 5/23 20:35:05

It's hilarious how you use word count to cover for - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 20:37:42

You're welcome to your opinion, of course. Hopefully you're - JeffB MU

- 5/23 20:40:54

When you make assumptions, you cannot say your findings are - MizzouTigerz MU

- 5/23 21:29:19

People have to make assumptions all of the time. Scientists, - JeffB MU

- 5/23 22:27:38

'best estimates' (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 20:42:03

evidence? lol (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 20:41:20

I'm no fan of the CDC, I think they leave a lot to be - JeffB MU

- 5/23 20:58:36

To me, the key is fatality rate and who is, on average, - MUTGR MU - 5/23 22:02:30

The case fatality rate is the % diagnosed with it who die. - JeffB MU

- 5/23 23:29:10

"best estimates" isn't "evidence" (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 21:02:57

You want the raw data? (nm) - JeffB MU

- 5/23 21:04:19

Stop now please(nm) - tman MU - 5/23 21:07:40

they don't know, Jeff (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 21:05:57

"best estimates" (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 21:05:43

but Jeff did a bunch of math (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 20:20:05

Sounds a lot like the flu.nm - tiger4real MU - 5/23 19:10:59

Careful. People on this board do not know math. Only - HandBanana MU - 5/23 18:45:35

He's the jebus guy (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 19:21:49

^^^ Desperate for people to stay scared ^^^ - RayKinsella1922 SEC - 5/23 18:59:39

Nope. Exactly the opposite. - HandBanana MU - 5/23 19:22:27

The oriiginal Jeebus brand has not been available for some - RayKinsella1922 SEC - 5/23 20:24:16

Or meezus. Mm - SparkyStalcup MU - 5/23 18:55:07

You can’t use that blanket number for missouri because - tigerNkc MU

- 5/23 18:42:52

Why do the numbers in the northeast invalidate them for - JeffB MU

- 5/23 18:44:34

Are you sweating it? It's just another virus. You want to - RayKinsella1922 SEC - 5/23 17:47:54

that's a lot of math built on sand (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 17:22:54

^Not good at maff (nm) - HandBanana MU - 5/23 18:46:21

Not sure about sand, though it's still fairly early in the - JeffB MU

- 5/23 17:29:14

Lol - pickle MU

- 5/23 18:10:41

Link? (nm) - JeffB MU

- 5/23 18:14:45

it’s in the archives (nm) - pickle MU

- 5/23 18:21:42

So your lie won't be exposed then. (nm) - JeffB MU

- 5/23 18:29:20

Jeff, I was here. I remember your same overreaction to ebol - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:37:36

I did in fact point to the potential catastrophe ebola could - JeffB MU

- 5/23 18:43:15

lol (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:44:52

Do you have the ability to expound a little here? - JeffB MU

- 5/23 19:45:46

yes (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 19:55:17

lol (nm) - pickle MU

- 5/23 18:44:49

do you need sarcasm explained to you? - pickle MU

- 5/23 18:33:01

I think you're starting to lose it pickle. That wasn't sarca - JeffB MU

- 5/23 18:36:43

hi pot - ashtray UF - 5/24 10:13:27

jesus ****ing christ you are stupid (nm) - pickle MU

- 5/23 18:38:03

You relish dwelling at the bottom of the logic pyramid - JeffB MU

- 5/23 18:46:36

Jeff, this isn’t a discussion or debate (nm) - pickle MU

- 5/23 18:47:56

This is a political discussion forum. I'm here to discuss. - JeffB MU

- 5/23 20:21:39

he really is dumb to the core. it's almost sad (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:39:43

and his sychophant joins him at the bottom. - JeffB MU

- 5/23 18:47:08

I'm sorry, Jeff, but you're just not able to follow an - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:49:41

Another dodge by the cowardly duo. (nm) - JeffB MU

- 5/23 19:37:30

that was a h00t (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:12:17

why do i need other numbers more reliable to say yours - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 17:30:10

You don't need any other figures to go on, of course, if you - JeffB MU

- 5/23 17:31:09

straw man - pickle MU

- 5/23 18:24:04

Not even close. If you weren't so dumb/lazy yourself you - JeffB MU

- 5/23 18:28:54

it's a straw man because I wasn't arguing other number - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:40:49

You seem to misunderstand either what a straw man argument - JeffB MU

- 5/23 20:15:29

it was a straw man - pickle MU

- 5/23 18:34:07

Of course, if you were intelligent enough and your assertion - JeffB MU

- 5/23 18:40:03

the board doesn’t need me to see how stupid you are (nm) - pickle MU

- 5/23 18:46:25

You should have stopped at the 5th word. (nm) - JeffB MU

- 5/23 20:38:07

you won't understand the explanation I gave because you're - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:41:15

Or maybe you would realize that your argument was an invalid - JeffB MU

- 5/23 20:36:04

90 prefers to just ***** and cry - meatiger MU - 5/23 17:37:41

did you even read the thread? (nm) - pickle MU

- 5/23 18:30:54

I was crying? Do you have a comment on his premise - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 17:59:24

Just you crying(nm) - meatiger MU - 5/23 18:22:05

drinking early? (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:23:34

Not at all(nm) - meatiger MU - 5/23 18:24:15

RE: Not at all(nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 18:41:30

Yes i did(nm) - meatiger MU - 5/23 18:53:14

what part was me crying? (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 19:54:35

I'm not flying at all Jeff. You're flying (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 5/23 17:33:03

I'm sort of flying.(nm) - Toger STL - 5/23 17:59:37

Pretty good stuff? (nm) - JeffB MU

- 5/23 18:08:41

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