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The benefit of flattening the curve

Posted on: May 1, 2020 at 09:34:57 CT
*M* KC
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As posted here 3 weeks ago, to much dismay and consternation of the know-nothings. Operative words: "Fewer people die".

"In this particular case, the models showed that if the virus proceeds along its natural infection rate, the healthcare system would very likely be overrun in the course of several weeks and more people would die than necessary, because many of them would be unable to receive appropriate care. The bargain you strike by flattening the curve is that, yes, the virus stays in circulation longer, and yes, this is sub-optimal, but the payoff is that the overall fatality rate is dramatically lowered because we have the resources to treat all serious cases according to best-practices, so fewer people die.

Grasping this basic premise isn't like understanding quantum mechanics. If you can't even "see a good reason" for flattening the curve, then you probably don't know what you're talking about.

Some people end up with less money. In return for that, other people end up not dead. That's the tradeoff. Not nearly as complicated as the know-nothings here (think "90Tiger") make it out to be.

You can certainly debate in good faith whether that reason is a good enough reason to have damaged our economy as we apparently have. That is an open question upon which reasonable minds can differ."

Edited by *M* at 15:55:13 on 04/09/20


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Edited by *M* at 09:36:04 on 05/01/20
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MESSAGE THREAD

The benefit of flattening the curve - *M* KC - 5/1 09:34:57
     It's retardation and it's expected that you would - RayKinsella1922 SEC - 5/1 10:56:13
     I don't find any of it complicated. You're the guy re-positi - 90Tiger STL - 5/1 10:23:26
     ^ the king of necro posts and need to have his opinion - 90Tiger STL - 5/1 10:22:27
     The curve is so flattened that healthcare workers are - TigerJackSwartz MU - 5/1 09:56:32
     flattening the curve saves very few lives from the virus. - DHighlander NWMSU - 5/1 09:56:05
     Video evidence of our HC system on the brink - El-ahrairah BAMA - 5/1 09:54:03
          "Another covid victim, obviously" -media(nm) - dangertim MU - 5/1 10:06:35
          lol Jesus(nm) - Ragnar Danneskjold MU - 5/1 09:57:25
     the curve is flattened - MizzouAstro MU - 5/1 09:53:23
     STL has moved far beyond flattening the curve and any - Bulldog Bob Brown STL - 5/1 09:44:34
          RE: STL has moved far beyond flattening the curve and any - TigerJackSwartz MU - 5/1 09:57:31
     Congrats you lived! - Ragnar Danneskjold MU - 5/1 09:40:53
     I think most people understand that - mizzouSECedes STL - 5/1 09:40:48
          Which is why I said, three weeks ago - *M* KC - 5/1 09:54:56
               Is all this your attempt to reframe you prior positions - 90Tiger STL - 5/1 10:24:49
               One problem always comes with analysts assessments - STLTIGER MU - 5/1 10:19:03
               No let individuals decide - El-ahrairah BAMA - 5/1 09:56:35
                    He will never, ever acknowledge that this is the critical - 90Tiger STL - 5/1 10:25:34
          How many people who went on unemployment made more - playhard NWMSU - 5/1 09:45:44
               That's just a Republican talking point - ashtray UF - 5/1 09:55:57
               It won’t be hard - El-ahrairah BAMA - 5/1 09:52:00
               It sounds like you support the elimination - mizzouSECedes STL - 5/1 09:47:02
                    That beneift will expire - meatiger MU - 5/1 10:15:11
                    Eliminate it for corporations first - ashtray UF - 5/1 09:57:07
                    I think they made a mistake when they didn't put in some - playhard NWMSU - 5/1 09:51:14
                         That's what some politicians wanted (nm) - Sal MU - 5/1 09:53:58
                              No they didn't - ashtray UF - 5/1 09:59:10
                                   Some absolutely wanted it to be that way (nm) - Sal MU - 5/1 10:02:22
                                        Who? (nm) - ashtray UF - 5/1 10:04:26
                                             I'm not sure who put that part of the pork in - Sal MU - 5/1 10:06:28
                                                  After the fact - ashtray UF - 5/1 10:08:05
                                                       I guess you weren't paying attention then. - *M* KC - 5/1 10:09:45
                                                            Incorrect (nm) - ashtray UF - 5/1 10:11:12
                                                                 Wasn't hard to find. - *M* KC - 5/1 10:13:35
                                                                      how many of them voted against it? (nm) - ashtray UF - 5/1 10:20:33
                                                                 Ii thought you were smarter than Sal. I guess not(nm) - *M* KC - 5/1 10:12:05
                                                       OK then (nm) - Sal MU - 5/1 10:08:39
                                                            funny how Republicans are so concerned about that - ashtray UF - 5/1 10:10:44
                                                                 I haven't said anything about R v D, but you keep - Sal MU - 5/1 10:11:27
                                                                      but you're playing into it (nm) - ashtray UF - 5/1 10:19:31
                                                                           No I'm not - Sal MU - 5/1 10:20:57
                                                                                saying they wanted it while they vote Yes - ashtray UF - 5/1 10:23:43
                                                                                     I was saying they wanted the unemployment benefits - Sal MU - 5/1 10:29:25
                                                                                          ahhh, I don't doubt that - ashtray UF - 5/1 10:33:21
                         that wasn't a mistake, that was intentional(nm) - cnk ATL - 5/1 09:53:20
                         That was at dem insistence - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 5/1 09:52:47
                              Once people get used to that extra $$ they will have - DHighlander NWMSU - 5/1 10:01:04
                                   The $600 number was not in any way - meatiger MU - 5/1 10:35:56
                              False - ashtray UF - 5/1 10:00:05
                                   One they found out it was included in the language - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 5/1 10:08:20
                                        So they didn't read it before voting - ashtray UF - 5/1 10:09:12
                                             They clearly did not read it before voting - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 5/1 10:11:39
                                                  hedge funds applied for PPP money - ashtray UF - 5/1 10:26:24
                                                       No, it was a sloppy bill and sloppy execution - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 5/1 10:29:00
                                                            You fully supported it - meatiger MU - 5/1 10:35:25
                                                                 I supported making payments to those impacted by - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 5/1 10:36:29
                                                  The $600 benefit - meatiger MU - 5/1 10:16:31
                                                       There was no knowledge it was extended if it meant - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 5/1 10:20:50
                                                            It was $600 extra - meatiger MU - 5/1 10:25:47
                                                                 That is what some say - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 5/1 10:30:09
                                                                      Yes...this was a new thing - meatiger MU - 5/1 10:34:59
                                             Either way, it was intentionally put in there - Sal MU - 5/1 10:10:04
                                                  and voted for by Republicans - ashtray UF - 5/1 10:13:45
                                                       OK ... but you said it wasn't purposely put in (nm) - Sal MU - 5/1 10:16:33
                                                            no I didn't - ashtray UF - 5/1 10:24:53
                                                                 "that's what some politicians wanted" - Sal MU - 5/1 10:27:06
                         I agree - mizzouSECedes STL - 5/1 09:52:02
     It is a benefit, but it happens because of the reason - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 5/1 09:38:56
          apparently thousands of deaths were going to be saved - Sal MU - 5/1 09:40:48
     What % of lives were saved due to the lockdowns - Sal MU - 5/1 09:37:59
          Sal, that's what people call a counterfactual, if they - *M* KC - 5/1 09:52:19
               ok ... what's the estimated number then? (nm) - Sal MU - 5/1 09:53:34
                    As I said, you can't even estimate it until - *M* KC - 5/1 09:57:26
                         yet you fully support drastic measures based on counter-fact - 90Tiger STL - 5/1 10:27:57
                              They keep making the arguments against - Sal MU - 5/1 10:31:07
                         At first you said it can't be answered - Sal MU - 5/1 10:01:47
                              Sal, Sal. Take a deep breath. - *M* KC - 5/1 10:06:33
                                   Then it can be answered (nm) - Sal MU - 5/1 10:07:00
                                        If an "estimate" is an "answer", then yes, it can, in - *M* KC - 5/1 10:11:17
                                             The initial order was 15 days - Sal MU - 5/1 10:12:10
          That will never be known - meatiger MU - 5/1 09:46:16
          In the long run this will cost Americans their lives - El-ahrairah BAMA - 5/1 09:40:51
               What % of lives will be lost due to the lockdowns?(nm) - playhard NWMSU - 5/1 09:42:33
                    more than the 300 or so currently dead in our state - El-ahrairah BAMA - 5/1 09:44:39
                         My wife had shoulder surgery and has gone in to to - playhard NWMSU - 5/1 09:49:35
                              Most have, yes ... hence medical workers - Sal MU - 5/1 09:51:37
                              Most of them have, yes - mizzouSECedes STL - 5/1 09:50:57
                    that isn't a question - Sal MU - 5/1 09:44:19
                    You tell us - mizzouSECedes STL - 5/1 09:43:38
               Yeah, it was a battle only against CV - Sal MU - 5/1 09:42:18




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