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I just don't understand why they don't do random sampling
Posted on: April 7, 2020 at 19:16:00 CT
JeffB MU
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tests for antibodies to the virus at least in select locales to get some idea of how many people have likely been infected.
It is a key number upon which all of the projections rely, but they go with guesses instead, based on little to no evidence.
They already have that antibody test. At a Red Cross in northern Italy 40 out of 60 people who came in to give blood during a blood drive tested positive for antibodies to the virus, but none of them ever suspected that they had ever been infected. They were apparently symptomless.
Perhaps that was an anomaly, but if the Red Cross can easily do those tests on site with immediate results, surely they could scale that up and start testing the general population and get a far more accurate estimate of what the actual lethality is and how much herd immunity that community has to this virus.
It is a key number upon which all of the projections rely, but they go with guesses instead, based on little to no evidence.
They already have that antibody test. At a Red Cross in northern Italy 40 out of 60 people who came in to give blood during a blood drive tested positive for antibodies to the virus, but none of them ever suspected that they had ever been infected. They were apparently symptomless.
Perhaps that was an anomaly, but if the Red Cross can easily do those tests on site with immediate results, surely they could scale that up and start testing the general population and get a far more accurate estimate of what the actual lethality is and how much herd immunity that community has to this virus.
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I just don't understand why they don't do random sampling - JeffB MU - 4/7 19:16:00