Four words: regression to the mean

Posted on: May 1, 2017 at 14:56:03 CT

"One way of thinking about 'regression to the mean' is in terms of sports performance. In order to win a football championship, for example, it is not enough only to be a good team — one needs to be both good and lucky. The team at the top of the standings in mid-season is likely to have been both good and lucky to that point, but cannot count on still being lucky for the rest of the season. For this reason, the team that is at the top of the standings at midseason is more likely to drop in standings than to remain at the top, and more likely to remain at the top than to improve (how does one improve from 'the top,' anyway?).

"This observation has been tagged the 'Sports Illustrated Jinx'. The jinx states that a player or team featured on the cover of a sports magazine such as SI is likely to have a disappointing year the following season (or even a disappointing game the following week). But if you think about it, a player is only likely to make the cover once, and for some surprisingly good performance — something truly spectacular that requires not only their superlative skill, but also lots of luck to beat the superlative skill of their competitors. Athletes on the cover of Sports Illustrated are likely to be at the very top of their game, and at the top, the most likely direction to move next is down. The next year, although the player may still be as skilled, he or she will not be as lucky, and post scores closer to 'typical'."

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Regression_to_the_mean#Sports

Edited by gary_lane_fan at 16:21:30 on 05/01/17