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He gave him far more than a scant chance.

Posted on: February 18, 2017 at 19:07:26 CT
tjwheeler UI
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I've provided the links and even helped you understand the variance between Silver's model and Taleb even though you brought Taleb up.

You must not know much about stats at all. Hope your career doesn't depend on it.
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Some ask what has Trump done so far - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 2/18 17:27:51
     What has he actually done? - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 17:35:37
          Nothing - he blew a third of his first 100 so far - raskolnikov MU - 2/18 17:36:52
               Are you pretending to be normal and living in the real world - Uncle Fester USMC - 2/18 17:56:07
               Actually his popularity is hitting upper 30's(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:37:21
                    Actually his popularity is hitting mid-50s - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:41:06
                         That's Rasmussen son. Do you know who Rasmussen polls? - raskolnikov MU - 2/18 19:17:09
                              Polls you liked totally missed the entire election. - RHAYWORTH MU - 2/18 20:51:24
                         Actually, his popularity did reach the mid 50's... - mizzoumurfkc MU - 2/18 19:08:35
                              It is way high with GOP voters, it is a honeymoon* - raskolnikov MU - 2/18 19:21:49
                         Actually I'm not. Here's Gallup (link) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:45:09
                              Gallup completely missed the election... - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:48:22
                                   Rasmussen polls 'likely voters' - raskolnikov MU - 2/18 19:18:01
                                   That's not correct. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:59:24
                                        it is correct - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:02:22
                                             Nope. Nate Silver says you're wrong. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:08:03
                                                  That's in nate's vested interest - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:10:12
                                                       He was the one who said Trump had a chance to win. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:11:26
                                                            hardly ... you're a dupe. To wit: - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:13:40
                                                                 That doesn't prove what you think it does. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:17:05
                                                                      Keep telling yourself that. - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:20:23
                                                                           Silver had been pumping Trump up since primaries. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:22:00
                                                                                Not in the general - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:22:58
                                                                                     You're wrong again. From the article you wouldn't read: - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:25:14
                                                                                          I watched Nate before the election - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:28:48
                                                                                               Not true. He gave Trump a greater chance than almost - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:35:49
                                                                                                    That's a vapid excuse. - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:38:38
                                                                                                         No he didn't. He didn't underestimate him at all. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:40:07
                                                                                                              wrong again - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:46:03
                                                                                                                   You restating it doesn't make it true. (nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 19:06:04
                                                                                          You're wrong as usual. What else is new!(nm) - STL1DFW STL - 2/18 18:27:39
                                                                                               he can't understand what he posts - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:29:48
                                                                                                    He gets spastic. It's a trait of the - STL1DFW STL - 2/18 19:31:47
                                                                                                         I'm not insulting or throwing around ! points. ;) (nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 20:01:04
                         RE: Actually his popularity is hitting mid-50s - playhard NWMSU - 2/18 17:42:46
                              Gallup completely missed the election, too - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:44:31
                                   You can't use polls only when you like them - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 17:48:10
                                        They were right on par historically and within MoE(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:00:05
                                             but for saying Trump had no chance - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:03:20
                                                  Nate is the one who said Trump had a chance. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:08:32
                                                       Nate gave Trump 1 in 3 - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:11:39
                                                            Your link - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:17:42
                                                                 no, that's Nate being self-serving - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:21:02
                                                                      If you completly ignore the link and what Silver says.(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:22:29
                                                                           no, you're trying to ignore how Taleb abused him - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:26:38
                                                                                Do you not realize 538's model was based on current - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:34:41
                                                                                     all the polls were about the election - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:39:25
                                                                                          You don't know much about Taleb and Silver's model then. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:40:56
                                                                                               that defense is undone by the simple fact - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:48:34
                                                                                                    He gave him far more than a scant chance. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 19:07:26
                                                                                                         wrong. Taleb nailed him. - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 20:48:25
                                                  Russia(nm) - playhard NWMSU - 2/18 18:07:53
                                                       MUH RUSHINZ - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:16:06
                                        I'm not. Y'all are using polls selectively - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:49:30
                                             1. I didn't vote for HRC. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:04:04
                                                  you're a hack - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:05:24
                                                       So you revert to childish insults when proven wrong. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:09:03
                                                            no, try harder - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:14:17
                                                                 not angry at all, but keep insulting to prove you're not - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:18:03
                                                       Funny you of all people calling someone a hack lol - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 18:06:52
                                                            Funny, find something I've said wrong - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:09:07
                                                                 He could just quote your posts in this thread(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:10:31
                                                                      He'd screw that up, too - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:15:19
                                                                           You're predictable. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:19:43
                                                                                You're predictable. - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:22:12
                                                                                     Way to prove my point yet again. More insults(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:22:52
                                                                                          Just descriptions. - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:27:13
                                                                                               Not upset. Your posting is predictable. (nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:36:19
                                             Trump just used a poll the other day you idiot - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 18:01:21
                                                  talking about you here, cabinet boy - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:03:56
     Yeah, he got Ford to not build that plant in Mexico.. - tigerdb MU - 2/18 17:33:14
     He can rattle off vague nothings - JG A - 2/18 17:31:09
          All you can accompllish are ad homs - MIZZOUowns SEC - 2/18 17:33:44
               When you consider your dresssing downs as ad homs - JG A - 2/18 17:37:06
     Those were empty phrases - raskolnikov MU - 2/18 17:29:57
          The bitterness amazes and amuses me - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 2/18 17:33:04
               it shows up here, too... - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:50:59
                    Like quoting a 55% approval in one poll which is the outlier - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:41:32
                         Consensus isn't truth - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:56:45
                              Citing one huge outlier is poor reasoning. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 19:09:06
                                   not at all - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 20:51:53
                                        I truly hope stats have nothing to do w your career(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 21:33:17
               The problem is he writes in fiction(nm) - playhard NWMSU - 2/18 17:41:13
               You are far too attached to politics(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:40:38
                    don't project - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:42:08
                         Notice, I'm not the one insulting people.(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:11:46
                              your posting that - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:16:36
                                   Your posts leave a nice record. But this is true of almost - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:20:46
     He could assault your mom and you'd praise him(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:28:36
          He'd spreads his mom's cheeks for him to assault her - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 17:32:46
          hyperbole (nm) - 90Tiger MU - 2/18 17:31:28
               not by all that much - JG A - 2/18 17:38:20
               This is what they are left doing - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 2/18 17:34:44
                    It is comical(nm) - Tigrrrr! MU - 2/18 18:04:18
                    How have you criticized Trump? link please(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:36:50
               okay - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:33:12
                    Yeah, it really does. it undermines any future credible cri - 90Tiger MU - 2/18 17:34:38
                         All based on hyperbole. LOL - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:36:12
                         and you're not simply a partisan hack?(nm) - tigerdb MU - 2/18 17:36:09
                              no, i'm not. I despise R's and D's and find Trump - 90Tiger MU - 2/18 17:41:19
                              Just because someone hates Trump - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 17:37:04
                                   pay close attention here. tj ignored and never had an - 90Tiger MU - 2/18 17:40:14
                                        My post was on topic. Your post here is not and incorrect. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:43:23
                                             tj, your irony here could put a hole in the Internet - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:57:58
                                                  Your post doesn't refute a thing(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:09:50
                         Ding. Ding. Ding. - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 2/18 17:36:02
                              It's how that one else started - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:59:57




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