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You can't use polls only when you like them

Posted on: February 18, 2017 at 17:48:10 CT

Hbombtiger STL

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10968

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which is precisely what Trump does. His popularity as at 40%.

While polls missed the electoral college, they didn't necessarily miss by that much. With the popular vote swinging in HRC's favor by 3 million, the polls likely weren't far off.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-us-president-approval-rating-one-month-historical-low-bill-clinton-a7586931.html

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REPLY

MESSAGE THREAD

Some ask what has Trump done so far - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 2/18 17:27:51

What has he actually done? - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 17:35:37

Nothing - he blew a third of his first 100 so far - raskolnikov MU - 2/18 17:36:52

Are you pretending to be normal and living in the real world - Uncle Fester USMC - 2/18 17:56:07

Actually his popularity is hitting upper 30's(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:37:21

Actually his popularity is hitting mid-50s - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 17:41:06

That's Rasmussen son. Do you know who Rasmussen polls? - raskolnikov MU - 2/18 19:17:09

Polls you liked totally missed the entire election. - RHAYWORTH MU - 2/18 20:51:24

Actually, his popularity did reach the mid 50's... - mizzoumurfkc MU

- 2/18 19:08:35

It is way high with GOP voters, it is a honeymoon* - raskolnikov MU - 2/18 19:21:49

Actually I'm not. Here's Gallup (link) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:45:09

Gallup completely missed the election... - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 17:48:22

Rasmussen polls 'likely voters' - raskolnikov MU - 2/18 19:18:01

That's not correct. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:59:24

it is correct - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:02:22

Nope. Nate Silver says you're wrong. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:08:03

That's in nate's vested interest - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:10:12

He was the one who said Trump had a chance to win. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:11:26

hardly ... you're a dupe. To wit: - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:13:40

That doesn't prove what you think it does. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:17:05

Keep telling yourself that. - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:20:23

Silver had been pumping Trump up since primaries. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:22:00

Not in the general - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:22:58

You're wrong again. From the article you wouldn't read: - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:25:14

I watched Nate before the election - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:28:48

Not true. He gave Trump a greater chance than almost - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:35:49

That's a vapid excuse. - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:38:38

No he didn't. He didn't underestimate him at all. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:40:07

wrong again - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:46:03

You restating it doesn't make it true. (nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 19:06:04

You're wrong as usual. What else is new!(nm) - STL1DFW STL - 2/18 18:27:39

he can't understand what he posts - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:29:48

He gets spastic. It's a trait of the - STL1DFW STL - 2/18 19:31:47

I'm not insulting or throwing around ! points. ;) (nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 20:01:04

RE: Actually his popularity is hitting mid-50s - playhard NWMSU - 2/18 17:42:46

Gallup completely missed the election, too - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 17:44:31

You can't use polls only when you like them - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 17:48:10

They were right on par historically and within MoE(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:00:05

but for saying Trump had no chance - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:03:20

Nate is the one who said Trump had a chance. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:08:32

Nate gave Trump 1 in 3 - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:11:39

Your link - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:17:42

no, that's Nate being self-serving - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:21:02

If you completly ignore the link and what Silver says.(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:22:29

no, you're trying to ignore how Taleb abused him - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:26:38

Do you not realize 538's model was based on current - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:34:41

all the polls were about the election - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:39:25

You don't know much about Taleb and Silver's model then. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:40:56

that defense is undone by the simple fact - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:48:34

He gave him far more than a scant chance. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 19:07:26

wrong. Taleb nailed him. - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 20:48:25

Russia(nm) - playhard NWMSU - 2/18 18:07:53

MUH RUSHINZ - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:16:06

I'm not. Y'all are using polls selectively - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 17:49:30

1. I didn't vote for HRC. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:04:04

you're a hack - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:05:24

So you revert to childish insults when proven wrong. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:09:03

no, try harder - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:14:17

not angry at all, but keep insulting to prove you're not - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:18:03

Funny you of all people calling someone a hack lol - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 18:06:52

Funny, find something I've said wrong - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:09:07

He could just quote your posts in this thread(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:10:31

He'd screw that up, too - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:15:19

You're predictable. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:19:43

You're predictable. - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:22:12

Way to prove my point yet again. More insults(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:22:52

Just descriptions. - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:27:13

Not upset. Your posting is predictable. (nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:36:19

Trump just used a poll the other day you idiot - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 18:01:21

talking about you here, cabinet boy - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:03:56

Yeah, he got Ford to not build that plant in Mexico.. - tigerdb MU - 2/18 17:33:14

He can rattle off vague nothings - JG A - 2/18 17:31:09

All you can accompllish are ad homs - MIZZOUowns SEC - 2/18 17:33:44

When you consider your dresssing downs as ad homs - JG A - 2/18 17:37:06

Those were empty phrases - raskolnikov MU - 2/18 17:29:57

The bitterness amazes and amuses me - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 2/18 17:33:04

it shows up here, too... - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 17:50:59

Like quoting a 55% approval in one poll which is the outlier - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:41:32

Consensus isn't truth - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:56:45

Citing one huge outlier is poor reasoning. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 19:09:06

not at all - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 20:51:53

I truly hope stats have nothing to do w your career(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 21:33:17

The problem is he writes in fiction(nm) - playhard NWMSU - 2/18 17:41:13

You are far too attached to politics(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:40:38

don't project - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 17:42:08

Notice, I'm not the one insulting people.(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:11:46

your posting that - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 18:16:36

Your posts leave a nice record. But this is true of almost - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:20:46

He could assault your mom and you'd praise him(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:28:36

He'd spreads his mom's cheeks for him to assault her - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 17:32:46

hyperbole (nm) - 90Tiger MU - 2/18 17:31:28

not by all that much - JG A - 2/18 17:38:20

This is what they are left doing - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 2/18 17:34:44

It is comical(nm) - Tigrrrr! MU

- 2/18 18:04:18

How have you criticized Trump? link please(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:36:50

okay - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:33:12

Yeah, it really does. it undermines any future credible cri - 90Tiger MU - 2/18 17:34:38

All based on hyperbole. LOL - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:36:12

and you're not simply a partisan hack?(nm) - tigerdb MU - 2/18 17:36:09

no, i'm not. I despise R's and D's and find Trump - 90Tiger MU - 2/18 17:41:19

Just because someone hates Trump - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 17:37:04

pay close attention here. tj ignored and never had an - 90Tiger MU - 2/18 17:40:14

My post was on topic. Your post here is not and incorrect. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:43:23

tj, your irony here could put a hole in the Internet - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 17:57:58

Your post doesn't refute a thing(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:09:50

Ding. Ding. Ding. - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 2/18 17:36:02

It's how that one else started - FootballRefugee MU

- 2/18 17:59:57

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