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Nope. Nate Silver says you're wrong.
Posted on: February 18, 2017 at 18:08:03 CT
tjwheeler UI
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-you-trust-polling-in-the-age-of-trump/
"That third possibility is pretty much exactly what happened. Trump beat the final FiveThirtyEight national polling average by only 1.8 percentage points. Meanwhile, he beat the final FiveThirtyEight polling average in the average swing state — weighted by its likelihood of being the tipping-point state — by 2.7 percentage points. (The miss was larger than that in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Clinton met or slightly exceeded her polls in several other swing states.) This was nothing at all out of the ordinary. The polls were about as accurate as they’d been, on average, in presidential elections since 1968. They were somewhat more accurate than they’d been in the most recent federal election, the 2014 midterms. But they were enough to tip the election to Trump because Clinton had been in a precarious position to begin with."
Gallup tracks daily and Trump sank to 38% approval yesterday.
No matter how much you throw a fit, you're not correct.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-you-trust-polling-in-the-age-of-trump/
"That third possibility is pretty much exactly what happened. Trump beat the final FiveThirtyEight national polling average by only 1.8 percentage points. Meanwhile, he beat the final FiveThirtyEight polling average in the average swing state — weighted by its likelihood of being the tipping-point state — by 2.7 percentage points. (The miss was larger than that in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Clinton met or slightly exceeded her polls in several other swing states.) This was nothing at all out of the ordinary. The polls were about as accurate as they’d been, on average, in presidential elections since 1968. They were somewhat more accurate than they’d been in the most recent federal election, the 2014 midterms. But they were enough to tip the election to Trump because Clinton had been in a precarious position to begin with."
Gallup tracks daily and Trump sank to 38% approval yesterday.
No matter how much you throw a fit, you're not correct.
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Nope. Nate Silver says you're wrong. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:08:03