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that defense is undone by the simple fact

Posted on: February 18, 2017 at 18:48:34 CT
FootballRefugee MU
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that Silver gave Trump scant chance to win that very day.

Again, you don't get probability. Taleb made his point accurately. You justo don't understand it. Cool.
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Some ask what has Trump done so far - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 2/18 17:27:51
     What has he actually done? - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 17:35:37
          Nothing - he blew a third of his first 100 so far - raskolnikov MU - 2/18 17:36:52
               Are you pretending to be normal and living in the real world - Uncle Fester USMC - 2/18 17:56:07
               Actually his popularity is hitting upper 30's(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:37:21
                    Actually his popularity is hitting mid-50s - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:41:06
                         That's Rasmussen son. Do you know who Rasmussen polls? - raskolnikov MU - 2/18 19:17:09
                              Polls you liked totally missed the entire election. - RHAYWORTH MU - 2/18 20:51:24
                         Actually, his popularity did reach the mid 50's... - mizzoumurfkc MU - 2/18 19:08:35
                              It is way high with GOP voters, it is a honeymoon* - raskolnikov MU - 2/18 19:21:49
                         Actually I'm not. Here's Gallup (link) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:45:09
                              Gallup completely missed the election... - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:48:22
                                   Rasmussen polls 'likely voters' - raskolnikov MU - 2/18 19:18:01
                                   That's not correct. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:59:24
                                        it is correct - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:02:22
                                             Nope. Nate Silver says you're wrong. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:08:03
                                                  That's in nate's vested interest - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:10:12
                                                       He was the one who said Trump had a chance to win. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:11:26
                                                            hardly ... you're a dupe. To wit: - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:13:40
                                                                 That doesn't prove what you think it does. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:17:05
                                                                      Keep telling yourself that. - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:20:23
                                                                           Silver had been pumping Trump up since primaries. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:22:00
                                                                                Not in the general - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:22:58
                                                                                     You're wrong again. From the article you wouldn't read: - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:25:14
                                                                                          I watched Nate before the election - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:28:48
                                                                                               Not true. He gave Trump a greater chance than almost - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:35:49
                                                                                                    That's a vapid excuse. - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:38:38
                                                                                                         No he didn't. He didn't underestimate him at all. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:40:07
                                                                                                              wrong again - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:46:03
                                                                                                                   You restating it doesn't make it true. (nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 19:06:04
                                                                                          You're wrong as usual. What else is new!(nm) - STL1DFW STL - 2/18 18:27:39
                                                                                               he can't understand what he posts - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:29:48
                                                                                                    He gets spastic. It's a trait of the - STL1DFW STL - 2/18 19:31:47
                                                                                                         I'm not insulting or throwing around ! points. ;) (nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 20:01:04
                         RE: Actually his popularity is hitting mid-50s - playhard NWMSU - 2/18 17:42:46
                              Gallup completely missed the election, too - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:44:31
                                   You can't use polls only when you like them - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 17:48:10
                                        They were right on par historically and within MoE(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:00:05
                                             but for saying Trump had no chance - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:03:20
                                                  Nate is the one who said Trump had a chance. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:08:32
                                                       Nate gave Trump 1 in 3 - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:11:39
                                                            Your link - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:17:42
                                                                 no, that's Nate being self-serving - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:21:02
                                                                      If you completly ignore the link and what Silver says.(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:22:29
                                                                           no, you're trying to ignore how Taleb abused him - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:26:38
                                                                                Do you not realize 538's model was based on current - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:34:41
                                                                                     all the polls were about the election - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:39:25
                                                                                          You don't know much about Taleb and Silver's model then. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:40:56
                                                                                               that defense is undone by the simple fact - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:48:34
                                                                                                    He gave him far more than a scant chance. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 19:07:26
                                                                                                         wrong. Taleb nailed him. - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 20:48:25
                                                  Russia(nm) - playhard NWMSU - 2/18 18:07:53
                                                       MUH RUSHINZ - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:16:06
                                        I'm not. Y'all are using polls selectively - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:49:30
                                             1. I didn't vote for HRC. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:04:04
                                                  you're a hack - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:05:24
                                                       So you revert to childish insults when proven wrong. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:09:03
                                                            no, try harder - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:14:17
                                                                 not angry at all, but keep insulting to prove you're not - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:18:03
                                                       Funny you of all people calling someone a hack lol - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 18:06:52
                                                            Funny, find something I've said wrong - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:09:07
                                                                 He could just quote your posts in this thread(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:10:31
                                                                      He'd screw that up, too - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:15:19
                                                                           You're predictable. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:19:43
                                                                                You're predictable. - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:22:12
                                                                                     Way to prove my point yet again. More insults(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:22:52
                                                                                          Just descriptions. - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:27:13
                                                                                               Not upset. Your posting is predictable. (nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:36:19
                                             Trump just used a poll the other day you idiot - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 18:01:21
                                                  talking about you here, cabinet boy - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:03:56
     Yeah, he got Ford to not build that plant in Mexico.. - tigerdb MU - 2/18 17:33:14
     He can rattle off vague nothings - JG A - 2/18 17:31:09
          All you can accompllish are ad homs - MIZZOUowns SEC - 2/18 17:33:44
               When you consider your dresssing downs as ad homs - JG A - 2/18 17:37:06
     Those were empty phrases - raskolnikov MU - 2/18 17:29:57
          The bitterness amazes and amuses me - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 2/18 17:33:04
               it shows up here, too... - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:50:59
                    Like quoting a 55% approval in one poll which is the outlier - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:41:32
                         Consensus isn't truth - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:56:45
                              Citing one huge outlier is poor reasoning. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 19:09:06
                                   not at all - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 20:51:53
                                        I truly hope stats have nothing to do w your career(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 21:33:17
               The problem is he writes in fiction(nm) - playhard NWMSU - 2/18 17:41:13
               You are far too attached to politics(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:40:38
                    don't project - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:42:08
                         Notice, I'm not the one insulting people.(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:11:46
                              your posting that - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 18:16:36
                                   Your posts leave a nice record. But this is true of almost - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:20:46
     He could assault your mom and you'd praise him(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:28:36
          He'd spreads his mom's cheeks for him to assault her - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 17:32:46
          hyperbole (nm) - 90Tiger MU - 2/18 17:31:28
               not by all that much - JG A - 2/18 17:38:20
               This is what they are left doing - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 2/18 17:34:44
                    It is comical(nm) - Tigrrrr! MU - 2/18 18:04:18
                    How have you criticized Trump? link please(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:36:50
               okay - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:33:12
                    Yeah, it really does. it undermines any future credible cri - 90Tiger MU - 2/18 17:34:38
                         All based on hyperbole. LOL - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:36:12
                         and you're not simply a partisan hack?(nm) - tigerdb MU - 2/18 17:36:09
                              no, i'm not. I despise R's and D's and find Trump - 90Tiger MU - 2/18 17:41:19
                              Just because someone hates Trump - Hbombtiger STL - 2/18 17:37:04
                                   pay close attention here. tj ignored and never had an - 90Tiger MU - 2/18 17:40:14
                                        My post was on topic. Your post here is not and incorrect. - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 17:43:23
                                             tj, your irony here could put a hole in the Internet - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:57:58
                                                  Your post doesn't refute a thing(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 2/18 18:09:50
                         Ding. Ding. Ding. - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 2/18 17:36:02
                              It's how that one else started - FootballRefugee MU - 2/18 17:59:57




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