It is the reality
Posted on: February 23, 2024 at 14:28:18 CT
meatiger MU
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not chance. Predictions take into account past averages, and sometimes they can model things better than others.
Look at a 7 game series in NBA. A model would predict the same outcome for each of the games with a home/away factor. The outcomes are never the same. The differences are not luck.
Now maybe if models had access to practices, game films, game plans, metabolic status of each player, etc, it would be better for sure.
Statistically, the difference between predictive model and actual outcome is thrown into the "error' term, but modelers know much of that error is just because the model is incorrect, but they do it anyways.