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Seth Emerson of The Athletic on Missouri
Posted on: April 5, 2023 at 11:03:40 CT
El Zorro MU
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Seth's take on Mizzou ever leaving the SEC. Big 12 will NEVER happen - they would give up $30M per year with that move. He also likes Mizzou's fit in the SEC much better when the two divisions go away - and gives them a puncher's chance of making a 12 team college football playoff (if they have the right coach). Nothing really new here - just an interesting take.
With a rejuvenated Big 12 looking to expand further, might it benefit Mizzou to consider returning there, since they seem unlikely to ever get near the top of the SEC? Or is the revenue difference worth their second-tier status?
Now this is a great curveball, because as much as Missouri still seems out of place in the SEC (at least to some people), it’s the Big Ten where those people think Mizzou is a more natural fit. In fact, it’s generally assumed the school was angling for the Big Ten during the 2010/2011 realignment wars, and that only when it didn’t look like an invitation was forthcoming did Missouri agree to accompany Texas A&M to the SEC. If Missouri had waited, would it have gotten the Big Ten’s invite in late 2012 instead of Maryland or Rutgers? That’s hard to say because at that point it was almost all about TV markets, and although Missouri could say it has a chunk of the St. Louis and Kansas City markets, the Big Ten was, rightly or wrongly, allured by the potential of the New York and Washington/Baltimore markets.
This time around, it’s more about brands. Missouri could go, but unless it went to the Big Ten — where an invite still does not seem forthcoming — then it would be giving up a lot of money to leave. How much money? If you use just the TV money, the SEC’s average payout is set to be around $58 million under the current parameters of the ESPN contract, while the Big 12’s average payout will only be around $28 million – and that was considered a good get by first-year commissioner Brett Yormark.
Suffice to say, that’s a lot of annual money to walk away from if you’re Missouri. How much would it recoup by presumably being more competitive in the Big 12? Perhaps some more visibility, which would lead to the benefits that programs like TCU are hoping to use to become sustained powers. That would be a calculated risk, with some justification: Missouri would be the second all-time winningest program in the new Big 12, behind only West Virginia, while it will rank 11th in the new SEC. But it’s hard to argue right now that Missouri isn’t also behind TCU, Oklahoma State and Baylor, as well as incoming Cincinnati and maybe BYU. Certainly, Missouri would have an easier path, but not that much easier.
It still seems more about Missouri itself, and whether it can hire the right coach — maybe it already has in Eli Drinkwitz, I don’t know — commit enough resources and get some luck. This is a program that came one win away from making the BCS championship in 2007 and won the SEC East in 2013 and ’14. In the age of the 12-team College Football Playoff, you won’t have to be the best team in the conference to get in. You can sneak in with a very good year, then try to build on that. The exchange of rivalry games would also be a wash: Missouri would get Kansas back, but it would lose Arkansas, and it’s just about to get Oklahoma back.
One of the main reasons Missouri has felt out of place in the SEC is that it was out of place in the SEC East. But divisions are about to go away, and Mizzou’s schedule is about to make much more sense. Between that and the money, there just isn’t any reason for Missouri to walk away — unless the Big Ten came calling.
With a rejuvenated Big 12 looking to expand further, might it benefit Mizzou to consider returning there, since they seem unlikely to ever get near the top of the SEC? Or is the revenue difference worth their second-tier status?
Now this is a great curveball, because as much as Missouri still seems out of place in the SEC (at least to some people), it’s the Big Ten where those people think Mizzou is a more natural fit. In fact, it’s generally assumed the school was angling for the Big Ten during the 2010/2011 realignment wars, and that only when it didn’t look like an invitation was forthcoming did Missouri agree to accompany Texas A&M to the SEC. If Missouri had waited, would it have gotten the Big Ten’s invite in late 2012 instead of Maryland or Rutgers? That’s hard to say because at that point it was almost all about TV markets, and although Missouri could say it has a chunk of the St. Louis and Kansas City markets, the Big Ten was, rightly or wrongly, allured by the potential of the New York and Washington/Baltimore markets.
This time around, it’s more about brands. Missouri could go, but unless it went to the Big Ten — where an invite still does not seem forthcoming — then it would be giving up a lot of money to leave. How much money? If you use just the TV money, the SEC’s average payout is set to be around $58 million under the current parameters of the ESPN contract, while the Big 12’s average payout will only be around $28 million – and that was considered a good get by first-year commissioner Brett Yormark.
Suffice to say, that’s a lot of annual money to walk away from if you’re Missouri. How much would it recoup by presumably being more competitive in the Big 12? Perhaps some more visibility, which would lead to the benefits that programs like TCU are hoping to use to become sustained powers. That would be a calculated risk, with some justification: Missouri would be the second all-time winningest program in the new Big 12, behind only West Virginia, while it will rank 11th in the new SEC. But it’s hard to argue right now that Missouri isn’t also behind TCU, Oklahoma State and Baylor, as well as incoming Cincinnati and maybe BYU. Certainly, Missouri would have an easier path, but not that much easier.
It still seems more about Missouri itself, and whether it can hire the right coach — maybe it already has in Eli Drinkwitz, I don’t know — commit enough resources and get some luck. This is a program that came one win away from making the BCS championship in 2007 and won the SEC East in 2013 and ’14. In the age of the 12-team College Football Playoff, you won’t have to be the best team in the conference to get in. You can sneak in with a very good year, then try to build on that. The exchange of rivalry games would also be a wash: Missouri would get Kansas back, but it would lose Arkansas, and it’s just about to get Oklahoma back.
One of the main reasons Missouri has felt out of place in the SEC is that it was out of place in the SEC East. But divisions are about to go away, and Mizzou’s schedule is about to make much more sense. Between that and the money, there just isn’t any reason for Missouri to walk away — unless the Big Ten came calling.
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Seth Emerson of The Athletic on Missouri - El Zorro MU - 4/5 11:03:40
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