Models

Posted on: April 9, 2020 at 15:49:00 CT

Models are not facts. They are snapshots taken at a moment in time which attempt to predict, with varying degrees of confidence, what the future might look like, dependent upon a number of variables—which may, or may not, remain constant. And which may or may not, after the fact, comport with what actually happens. Most models of this type employ a commonly used type of statistical analysis called regression analysis. Some of you have heard of them, most of those don't understand them but think they do.

One of the hallmarks of the know-nothings on this board (think "90Tiger") is that they will take a model, strip out all of the context and caveats, pretend that the model definitively "predicted" something it did not, and then try to dunk on it if the exact outcome does not materialize precisely on schedule.

Happens all the time on this silly board, and it's an indication either of bad faith or severe cognitive limitations.

In this particular case, the models showed that if the virus proceeds along its natural infection rate, the healthcare system would very likely be overrun in the course of several weeks and more people would die than necessary, because many of them would be unable to receive appropriate care. The bargain you strike by flattening the curve is that, yes, the virus stays in circulation longer, and yes, this is sub-optimal, but the payoff is that the overall fatality rate is dramatically lowered because we have the resources to treat all serious cases according to best-practices, so fewer people die.

Grasping this basic premise isn't like understanding quantum mechanics. If you can't even "see a good reason" for flattening the curve, then you probably don't know what you're talking about.

Some people end up with less money. In return for that, other people end up not dead. That's the tradeoff. Not nearly as complicated as the know-nothings here (think "90Tiger") make it out to be.

You can certainly debate in good faith whether that reason is a good enough reason to have damaged our economy as we apparently have. That is an open question upon which reasonable minds can differ.



Edited by *M* at 15:55:13 on 04/09/20