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Playing hardball is often a good strategy when one holds
Posted on: April 12, 2025 at 10:58:05 CT
JeffB MU
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the upper hand. There seems to be some disagreement, however, as to who holds the best hand in our showdown with China. Some are claiming that the US has China in a very vulnerable situation, or even on the ropes. Others claim that China has been diversifying its trading partners and they and their BRICS partners have been building up an alternative monetary exchange system, trade routes and manufacturing prowess for some time now. They claim that not only is the Asian (ASEAN) trading block growing strongly, but the US/European block has been trending down for some time now. They even believe that the ASEAN traders have surpassed the US trading system and that *they* now hold the winning hand.
Time will tell.
A post from below:
I hope this Harvard economist is wrong in re: trade war with China
8:11 but plays well at 1.2X speed
https://youtu.be/HO7mt7d9Zp8
-----------
It does make me a little less confident in Trump's poker playing prowess to hear that he says he doesn't seek out any "number crunchers", but talks to various people, gets a gut feeling and makes his decisions based upon that gut feeling. I would feel a little better if he didn't have some significant losses on his record when using his inimical riverboat gambling style.
He will likely come out of this looking either like a great hero, or a terrible goat.
Worst case, scenario would be if a trade war leads into a hot "real" war. Next worse, would be if we do lose the trade war showdown and our slide on the world economic stage is accelerated rather than reversed.
The upside, of course, is if he succeeds in a big way and revitalizes the American economy and puts us back on a strong path of growth and goods with the Made In America sticker are once again coveted as the best around the world. That would require reversing the deficits, and improving the savings rates of the US & citizens, however, and in my opinion, tossing our fiat money system in the trash bin of history where it belongs.
End the Fed.
Edited by JeffB at 11:06:26 on 04/12/25
Time will tell.
A post from below:
I hope this Harvard economist is wrong in re: trade war with China
8:11 but plays well at 1.2X speed
https://youtu.be/HO7mt7d9Zp8
-----------
It does make me a little less confident in Trump's poker playing prowess to hear that he says he doesn't seek out any "number crunchers", but talks to various people, gets a gut feeling and makes his decisions based upon that gut feeling. I would feel a little better if he didn't have some significant losses on his record when using his inimical riverboat gambling style.
He will likely come out of this looking either like a great hero, or a terrible goat.
Worst case, scenario would be if a trade war leads into a hot "real" war. Next worse, would be if we do lose the trade war showdown and our slide on the world economic stage is accelerated rather than reversed.
The upside, of course, is if he succeeds in a big way and revitalizes the American economy and puts us back on a strong path of growth and goods with the Made In America sticker are once again coveted as the best around the world. That would require reversing the deficits, and improving the savings rates of the US & citizens, however, and in my opinion, tossing our fiat money system in the trash bin of history where it belongs.
End the Fed.
Edited by JeffB at 11:06:26 on 04/12/25
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Playing hardball is often a good strategy when one holds - JeffB MU - 4/12 10:58:05