Biden won both Arizona & Nevada in 2020. They both have a
Posted on: August 23, 2024 at 15:24:49 CT
JeffB
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slight edge towards Trump on Polymarket 54%/46% in Nevada & 55%/45% in Arizona. A couple of weeks ago Biden/Harris was leading in Nevada & Trump had about a 1% to 2% lead in Arizona.
They mark the states as swing states when either candidate has a 55% probability of winning or less.
fwiw, Georgia was in the swing state category a couple of weeks ago, but has now moved into Trump lean at 61%/39% Trump.
Pennsylvania was a Kamala lean, but has now not only moved into swing state range, but even has Trump with a small lead - 52% to 48%.
They had Kamala with well over the 270 electoral votes needed to win a couple of weeks ago, but now she's dropped to 251 EVs & Trump is up to 287, 17 more than he needs to win.
The momentum is shifting away from Kamala and things don't look good heading into the debates, especially given her abysmal performance in debates.