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And my point was if there were an error on our part it would

Posted on: April 9, 2020 at 15:26:33 CT
DHighlander NWMSU
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be over counting deaths due to the instructions to count anything Covid positive or respiratory related as a Covid death. That is obviously overstating the deaths.

At the same time we got a late start on testing and still lag behind most first world countries in our tested % so that number is likely to small.

That 1/3 of the positives is likely to go up as we test and that 1/6 number is likely to go down when we go back and start looking at the actual causes of death.
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The US currently has about 1/3 of the world’s cases but only - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 14:39:28
     Lag time - KC rules MU - 4/9 14:46:38
          Nothing to do with that. Simple answer? We test more(nm) - tigerNkc MU - 4/9 15:05:41
               Really? This says differently. - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:13:47
                    tests per million has zippo to do with total tests performed - Spanky KU - 4/9 16:43:39
                    I guess maybe fewer places of high density? More space to - tigerNkc MU - 4/9 15:16:13
                         I have been saying for days that population density will - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:20:19
                              SF has 10 deaths and 724 cases.. their population density - Spanky KU - 4/9 17:49:03
          But wouldn’t lag time affect both those numbers? We were - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:02:28
               RE: But wouldn’t lag time affect both those numbers? We were - KC rules MU - 4/9 15:13:06
                    You put a lot of trust in models that have been horribly - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:19:04
                         The "models" are not "inaccurate". The models are simply - *M* KC - 4/9 15:37:08
                              All models are wrong - some are useful - KC rules MU - 4/9 15:42:58
                         Not at all - KC rules MU - 4/9 15:28:39
     RE: The US currently has about 1/3 of the world’s cases but only - *M* KC - 4/9 14:44:05
          If we have 1/3 or the total cases and only 1/6 of the deaths - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:04:26
               Your assumption is that confirmed tests - meatiger MU - 4/9 15:06:30
                    We are counting everything related to Covid or looking like - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:10:40
                         RE: We are counting everything related to Covid or looking like - meatiger MU - 4/9 15:12:11
                              And my point was if there were an error on our part it would - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:26:33
               RE: If we have 1/3 or the total cases and only 1/6 of the deaths - *M* KC - 4/9 15:05:04
                    Sorry, I got the first part of your statement but misread - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:07:33
                         RE: Sorry, I got the first part of your statement but misread - *M* KC - 4/9 15:13:58
                              Not ours but in Europe. Their systems have been - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:30:05
                              The smartest epidemiologist in the United States in January: - ummmm MU - 4/9 15:21:48
                                   Yup. even the world's leading experts are sometimes - *M* KC - 4/9 15:28:13
                                        But Dr. Fauci is definitely right now. (nm) - ummmm MU - 4/9 15:28:56
                                             I don't remember saying that. Is that what you think? - *M* KC - 4/9 15:34:16
                                                  I'm relying on an opinion of an epidemiologist too: - ummmm MU - 4/9 16:38:33
                         Both sides will find their evidence - meatiger MU - 4/9 15:13:34
          um, it's a virus. it's not going to be eradicated. I'm goin - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 14:47:37
               How ‘bout polio? - Emoji Man MSU - 4/9 15:26:10
               We managed to essentially eradicate Smallpox which is indeed - KC rules MU - 4/9 14:53:12
                    Just wait till the ChiComs release weaponized smallpox - Uncle Fester USMC - 4/9 15:03:10
                    RE: We managed to essentially eradicate Smallpox which is indeed - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:00:36
                         RE: We managed to essentially eradicate Smallpox which is indeed - *M* KC - 4/9 15:07:36
                              lol, yeah - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:08:48
                         Smallpox exists in governmental labs all over the world - Bulldog Bob Brown STL - 4/9 15:04:10
               You've heard of the smallpox virus, I presume. - *M* KC - 4/9 14:52:19
                    and i'm also noting you didn't deny my assertion. I'm - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:06:32
                         And I'm noticing that as usual. - *M* KC - 4/9 15:17:11
                              i was and remain totally dead right about this and you're - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:19:49
                                   RE: i was and remain totally dead right about this and you're - *M* KC - 4/9 15:32:26
                                        I support social distancing too, and the hospital capacity i - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 16:12:38
                    yeah, it's the only time in history it's happened. good luc - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:01:35
          Eradicated? That will likely never happen. (nm) - ummmm MU - 4/9 14:45:33
               probably not, but not impossible. - *M* KC - 4/9 14:50:15
                    The vast majority of people will clear this infection on - ummmm MU - 4/9 14:56:05
                         RE: The vast majority of people will clear this infection on - *M* KC - 4/9 14:58:53
                              hiding people from the virus will increase chances - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:17:40
                              as I indicated above, you're totally lost on all of this - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:17:03
                              Epidemiologists don't focus on eradication, so I don't - ummmm MU - 4/9 15:03:43
                                   RE: Epidemiologists don't focus on eradication, so I don't - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:18:57
                              The biggest reason we would have a worse 2nd wave - meatiger MU - 4/9 15:01:34
               Oh yeah? Just wait till the Bill Gates Vaccine of Death - Uncle Fester USMC - 4/9 14:49:22
     US tests more - meatiger MU - 4/9 14:42:58
          Among many other things(nm) - meatiger MU - 4/9 14:43:16
     check your premise (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 14:40:17
          I'm coming up with 17% of the deaths, ~ 29% of the cases. (nm) - JeffB MU - 4/9 15:20:07




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