lol, no
Posted on: April 4, 2020 at 14:41:54 CT
TigerNuts KC
Posts:
99219
Member For:
23.19 yrs
Level:
User
M.O.B. Votes:
0
That is not what any of those models mean nor did anyone who came up with them present them that way. If the media did or you heard it the wrong way, that is not the fault of the model or anyone involved in creating it.
The models say "based on what we know right now, and with no further interventions, we COULD see fatalities in the XX range". Those models are backed by statistical analysis that has a standard deviation and confidence interval that tells you the strength and variation of the model.
Furthermore, if we were to be "the next Italy" and then we weren't, isn't that because we reacted sooner rather than later, put preventative measures in place and avoided the outcome we were worried about? The fact that we aren't "Italy" right now lends credibility to the usefulness of using models like that to guide policy.