View from the Sonoran Desert

Posted on: March 27, 2018 at 20:40:11 CT

From this vantage point it seems to me there are a number of positions where the defense has a promising player who has not yet become a proven every down performer. I.e. The line where TBJ would be considered proven, but the next four defensive linemen are in the promising, yet to be fully proven category.

It would seem that in order for the defense to be as effective a defense as the one you describe, most if not all of the promising players will have to come through. The problem is as you increase the number of events that must be successful to achieve a result, the lower the probability that all will.

I.e. If you need three successes and the probability of each is 90%, the probability of all three occurring is about 73%. Increase the number of events to six and the probability of all six happening falls to about 48% ( the probability of each event remains at 90%). Increase the number of events to nine and the overall probability of all happening falls to about 35%.

You need a lot of good things to happen for the Tigers to be very good defensively and all those good things happening just isn't all that likely.