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0-18 in SEC play: Why it's almost impossible for a program
Posted on: February 13, 2024 at 21:40:46 CT
zounami MU
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like ours to be *that* bad.
Over the course of 18 games, even a Kim Anderson-coached team should be able to pull off 2 or 3 upsets, by mere chance (e.g. getting hot from 3, or the opponent going cold). And, in fact, Kim Anderson managed to win 2-3 SEC games every season of his MU tenure.
So if Kim Anderson can do it, it begs the question: How bad must a team be to go *winless* over an 18-game conference schedule?
Well, imagine a team so awful in conference play that its chances of winning at home are only 20% on average, and its chances of winning on the road are only 10%.
That hypothetically terrible team would still have a 95% chance of winning at least one game in conference play (1 - .8^9 * .9^9). In other words, only once every 20 seasons would that team go winless.
So what's happening this year is extraordinary... and will be very expensive to fix in the portal (but not as expensive as Gates' buyout: http://www.tigerboard.com/boards/view.php?message=18974412 ).
Over the course of 18 games, even a Kim Anderson-coached team should be able to pull off 2 or 3 upsets, by mere chance (e.g. getting hot from 3, or the opponent going cold). And, in fact, Kim Anderson managed to win 2-3 SEC games every season of his MU tenure.
So if Kim Anderson can do it, it begs the question: How bad must a team be to go *winless* over an 18-game conference schedule?
Well, imagine a team so awful in conference play that its chances of winning at home are only 20% on average, and its chances of winning on the road are only 10%.
That hypothetically terrible team would still have a 95% chance of winning at least one game in conference play (1 - .8^9 * .9^9). In other words, only once every 20 seasons would that team go winless.
So what's happening this year is extraordinary... and will be very expensive to fix in the portal (but not as expensive as Gates' buyout: http://www.tigerboard.com/boards/view.php?message=18974412 ).
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0-18 in SEC play: Why it's almost impossible for a program - zounami MU - 2/13 21:40:46
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