 |
|
I would think that stay at home orders, if people comply,
Posted on: May 3, 2020 at 23:55:56 CT
JeffB MU
Posts:
72409
Member For:
21.47 yrs
Level:
User
M.O.B. Votes:
0
should have an effect upon how many people catch the flu and other communicable diseases.
The huge NY spike in deaths that I saw was from all causes, not just COVID. I saw it on a video which got the graph from the NY Times. I didn't see the original graph with the actual numbers, so it's possible it was misleading... but it was quite dramatic. It had a line of the normal # of deaths over time and a red line showing the actual deaths. The red line followed the background line closely until there was a huge spike.
I don't remember the numbers he gave for the peak, but it was something like 19,000 deaths above normal for that period and it dropped significantly, but was still far above the norm. The number given for COVID deaths was 4,000 less than the total excess number of deaths compared to normal.
His point was that it didn't look like the number of COVID deaths was being massively over reported. In fact, it seemed more likely to him that they were being under reported.
This was during a time of quarantine and he mentioned that it would be ration to expect that there were likely fewer deaths due to car accidents, work accidents and so on, but perhaps more deaths due to domestic violence and suicides & so on. He figured those ancillary factors should tend to cancel each other out somewhat.
That does seem reasonable to me. If they balanced out perfectly and the number of deaths sans the coronavirus and the resultant lockdown had remained in the normal range, then it would indicate the deaths really due to COVID was actually 4,000 higher than officially reported.
If there were more deaths due to suicides, domestic violence, etc. than were saved from auto and work accidents etc. then the numbers would be less than 4,000 above the officially reported COVID #s. If the # of additional suicides etc. had been less than the accident reductions then the true COVID deaths would have been more than 4,000 above the official COVID death numbers.
Bottom line, it seems to me is that the COVID death numbers in New York are probably reasonably accurate.
The huge NY spike in deaths that I saw was from all causes, not just COVID. I saw it on a video which got the graph from the NY Times. I didn't see the original graph with the actual numbers, so it's possible it was misleading... but it was quite dramatic. It had a line of the normal # of deaths over time and a red line showing the actual deaths. The red line followed the background line closely until there was a huge spike.
I don't remember the numbers he gave for the peak, but it was something like 19,000 deaths above normal for that period and it dropped significantly, but was still far above the norm. The number given for COVID deaths was 4,000 less than the total excess number of deaths compared to normal.
His point was that it didn't look like the number of COVID deaths was being massively over reported. In fact, it seemed more likely to him that they were being under reported.
This was during a time of quarantine and he mentioned that it would be ration to expect that there were likely fewer deaths due to car accidents, work accidents and so on, but perhaps more deaths due to domestic violence and suicides & so on. He figured those ancillary factors should tend to cancel each other out somewhat.
That does seem reasonable to me. If they balanced out perfectly and the number of deaths sans the coronavirus and the resultant lockdown had remained in the normal range, then it would indicate the deaths really due to COVID was actually 4,000 higher than officially reported.
If there were more deaths due to suicides, domestic violence, etc. than were saved from auto and work accidents etc. then the numbers would be less than 4,000 above the officially reported COVID #s. If the # of additional suicides etc. had been less than the accident reductions then the true COVID deaths would have been more than 4,000 above the official COVID death numbers.
Bottom line, it seems to me is that the COVID death numbers in New York are probably reasonably accurate.
Please explain why this message is being reported.
MESSAGE THREAD
I would think that stay at home orders, if people comply, - JeffB MU - 5/3 23:55:56