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RE: And projections are often wrong - and quite wrong

Posted on: March 28, 2020 at 14:50:59 CT
*M* KC
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Oh no, I’m not convinced of anything regarding this. But I know how to do relative risk analysis, and that analysis tells me that the spread of this thing becomes irrevocable and essentially uncontrollable at some point. And that we will probably not know we’ve reached that point until we’re past it. So our goal must be to not reach that point, even though we’re not sure where it is.

It’s a little like playing Russian roulette when you’re not certain how many bullets, if any, are in the gun.

Ergo, err on the side of caution.
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This is sobering - *M* KC - 3/28 13:59:40
     I’m starting to think the more hysterical docs get more $. - Emoji Man MSU - 3/28 15:37:19
     Looks like the infamous Imperial Model (nm) - Sal MU - 3/28 15:01:33
     You considering offing yourself and the family to avoid the - 90Tiger STL - 3/28 14:31:54
          RE: You considering offing yourself and the family to avoid the - *M* KC - 3/28 14:38:10
               No, i'm not reacting to "projections" and being hysterical - 90Tiger STL - 3/28 15:02:58
                    LOL - *M* KC - 3/28 15:04:51
                         you should review your posts the past week (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 3/28 15:11:57
                              LOL again - *M* KC - 3/28 15:15:37
                                   everyone in which you chastise folks for not reacting - 90Tiger STL - 3/28 15:25:44
                                        LOL a third time. - *M* KC - 3/28 15:47:14
                                             I'm truly impressed (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 3/28 18:42:53
     the next time one of those models is accurate will be the - MizzouAstro MU - 3/28 14:24:44
     They’re the lucky ones - El-ahrairah BAMA - 3/28 14:05:31
          That seems a lot like laughing at what scientists said - raskolnikov MU - 3/28 14:25:13
               yeah libtard scientists are geniuses now(nm) - TigerFan92 MU - 3/28 15:23:55
          I may actually die from longing for the soul enriching - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/28 14:10:53
               RE: I may actually die from longing for the soul enriching - raskolnikov MU - 3/28 14:28:39
                    yer such a good person - TigerFan92 MU - 3/28 15:24:42
                         I am a jihadist, so there you have it(nm) - raskolnikov MU - 3/28 15:42:38
     What is sobering is that Gates is one of the elite behind - jonesin - 3/28 14:05:16
     That would be bad, but less than most “expert” projections - tiger4real MU - 3/28 14:04:22
          Yes, not long ago many predictions were well into - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/28 14:07:46
               You guys have some FCKED UP news sources - raskolnikov MU - 3/28 14:31:31
          note that’s only through August 3. Absent a vaccine, or a - *M* KC - 3/28 14:07:39
               There will not be a vaccine for a year. Likely get a second - raskolnikov MU - 3/28 14:32:57
               I understand. Don’t think a vaccine will be avail until ’21 - tiger4real MU - 3/28 14:12:16
     I hope this is avoided - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/28 14:02:35
          when they are overstated, experts will say it's because - MizzouAstro MU - 3/28 14:25:50
               Same thing the man made global warming "the earth will be - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/28 14:27:07
          Well, this model is about 1,600,000 deaths below previous - ummmm MU - 3/28 14:07:39
               As noted above, its only through August 3 - *M* KC - 3/28 14:08:53
                    So, 80,000 before August 3rd and 1,600,000 next winter - ummmm MU - 3/28 14:10:11
                         That model uses 1918 stats against current population-fwit(nm) - Mo Texan MU - 3/28 14:36:41
                         there has been a wide range of projections - *M* KC - 3/28 14:12:50
                              What purpose do these projections serve? Especially - ummmm MU - 3/28 14:16:05
                                   to guide wise decision making(nm) - *M* KC - 3/28 14:39:24
                                        is it wisdom to follow inaccurate models?(nm) - MizzouAstro MU - 3/28 14:52:10
                                             it is wisdom to give credence to models that are prudently - *M* KC - 3/28 14:56:33
                                                  i think it's prudent to utilize all information at hand - MizzouAstro MU - 3/28 15:21:25
                                   to scare people - MizzouAstro MU - 3/28 14:31:31
                                        Ignorance is indeed bliss. (nm) - *M* KC - 3/28 14:41:17
                                             And projections are often wrong - and quite wrong - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/28 14:43:25
                                                  RE: And projections are often wrong - and quite wrong - *M* KC - 3/28 14:50:59
                                                       what is "erring on the side of caution" vs. what we're all - 90Tiger STL - 3/28 15:30:30
                                                       Prudence is wise. Hysteria not - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/28 15:00:34
                                                            you'll see hysteria when the food runs out (nm) - ashtray UF - 3/28 15:41:23
                                                                 well, yeah (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 3/28 18:42:33
                                                            I'm not sure where you've seen hysteria. - *M* KC - 3/28 15:03:18
                              No one knows how many have already been infected - tiger4real MU - 3/28 14:15:58
                                   Id say possibly, rather than likely(nm) - *M* KC - 3/28 14:52:08




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