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Humans are causing rapid climate change
Posted on: August 24, 2017 at 15:57:03 CT
paleojas MU
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Some points about the links (below) that MUTIGR posted about a new study refuting anthropogenic causes of climate change.
1. This paper is a computer simulation. So if you don't accept models showing clear patterns of anthropogenic influence on rising global temperatures and climate change because they are predictive models... you cannot logically accept this model either.
2. This paper will be largely ignored by the scientific community because it is published in a low-tier, low-impact journal. If there was higher confidence in these findings, they would have been accepted at a higher quality journal with a higher and more rigorous peer review process.
3. Here is the abstract of the paper for you to read... Some things to note: a) original (directly measured) temperature profiles were only approximated, which means they were not replicated--this calls into question the validity of the model. Garbage in, garbage out. b) the approximated temperatures generated with this model were up to 0.6 degrees C off... a considerable amount given that rises in even 1.5 to 2 degrees C have devastating consequences for biodiversity and land/sea ice.
"Time-series profiles derived from temperature proxies such as tree rings can provide information about past climate. Signal analysis was undertaken of six such datasets, and the resulting component sine waves used as input to an artificial neural network (ANN), a form of machine learning. By optimizing spectral features of the component sine waves, such as periodicity, amplitude and phase, the original temperature profiles were approximately simulated for the late Holocene period to 1830 CE. The ANN models were then used to generate projections of temperatures through the 20th century. The largest deviation between the ANN projections and measured temperatures for six geographically distinct regions was approximately 0.2 °C, and from this an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of approximately 0.6 °C was estimated. This is considerably less than estimates from the General Circulation Models (GCMs) used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and similar to estimates from spectroscopic methods."
Here's the link to this paper: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214242817300426
4. Pickle... is this better participation?
1. This paper is a computer simulation. So if you don't accept models showing clear patterns of anthropogenic influence on rising global temperatures and climate change because they are predictive models... you cannot logically accept this model either.
2. This paper will be largely ignored by the scientific community because it is published in a low-tier, low-impact journal. If there was higher confidence in these findings, they would have been accepted at a higher quality journal with a higher and more rigorous peer review process.
3. Here is the abstract of the paper for you to read... Some things to note: a) original (directly measured) temperature profiles were only approximated, which means they were not replicated--this calls into question the validity of the model. Garbage in, garbage out. b) the approximated temperatures generated with this model were up to 0.6 degrees C off... a considerable amount given that rises in even 1.5 to 2 degrees C have devastating consequences for biodiversity and land/sea ice.
"Time-series profiles derived from temperature proxies such as tree rings can provide information about past climate. Signal analysis was undertaken of six such datasets, and the resulting component sine waves used as input to an artificial neural network (ANN), a form of machine learning. By optimizing spectral features of the component sine waves, such as periodicity, amplitude and phase, the original temperature profiles were approximately simulated for the late Holocene period to 1830 CE. The ANN models were then used to generate projections of temperatures through the 20th century. The largest deviation between the ANN projections and measured temperatures for six geographically distinct regions was approximately 0.2 °C, and from this an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of approximately 0.6 °C was estimated. This is considerably less than estimates from the General Circulation Models (GCMs) used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and similar to estimates from spectroscopic methods."
Here's the link to this paper: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214242817300426
4. Pickle... is this better participation?
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Humans are causing rapid climate change - paleojas MU - 8/24 15:57:03
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