https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/03/economy-jobs-powell-fed-trump-immigration-tariffs-00438231
The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs last month, as employers shrugged off concerns that economic uncertainty and President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown would negatively affect growth.
The Labor Department’s June report is the latest in a string of favorable economic data to bolster Trump’s case that the job market and price levels can sustain the massive policy shifts that he’s bringing about.
The consensus estimate was that the nonfarm payrolls expansion would slow to 110,000 jobs — well below the 146,000 averaged over the previous year — and that unemployment would tick up by a tenth of a percentage point to 4.3 percent. Instead, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent, and the government’s estimates for April and May were revised up by 16,000 positions. Average hourly earnings climbed at a rate of 3.7 percent.
“For the FOURTH month in a row, jobs numbers have beat market expectations with nearly 150,000 good jobs created in June. American-born workers have accounted for ALL of the job gains since President Trump took office and wages continue to rise,” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt posted on X. “The economy is BOOMING again and it will only get better when the One, Big Beautiful Bill is passed and implemented!”
Economists from Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and elsewhere had anticipated that the pace of employment would slow as Trump’s restrictive immigration policies began to chip away at the labor supply. While the size and share of the foreign-born labor force continued to decline, it didn’t meaningfully dent hiring.
But while the report reflects a healthy economy, it also reduces the probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will lower interest rates when central bank policymakers convene later this month. Trump has relentlessly pressed the Fed chair to reduce borrowing costs to spur investment and hiring, but Powell says the central bank is in no rush, given the uncertainty around how the president’s tariffs could feed into inflation.