yes, I know they tracked cell phone data but most of that was to show people from the county didn't stay home and quantified how many people were there from across the country, but the takeaway in their discussion and what will be parroted in the media is this:
"Adding the number of new cases due to the Rally in South Dakota estimated by synthetic control
(3.6 per 1,000 population, scaled by the South Dakota population of approximately 858,000)
brings the total number of cases to 266,796 or 19 percent of 1.4 million new cases of COVID-19
in the United States between August 2nd 2020 and September 2nd 2020"
and
"If we conservatively assume that all of these cases were non-fatal, then these cases
represent a cost of over $12.2 billion, based on the statistical cost of a COVID-19 case of
$46,000 estimated by Kniesner and Sullivan (2020). This is enough to have paid each of the
estimated 462,182 rally attendees $26,553.64 not to attend. "
http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf
Those figures were quoted in the news stories.