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I've been following from the begining and agree the models

Posted on: April 23, 2020 at 09:53:32 CT

kmawv8 MU

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have been overstated. But, the first model that factored in social distancing predicted 100-240k deaths. That seemed to be extremely overstated a little while ago, but sitting at 45k+ deaths it might not be as far off as we thought weeks ago. And certainly not by a factor of 10.

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If this article is true - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 08:46:07

Looks like old and sick need to be concerned otherwise - MU-TULSA MU - 4/23 09:43:33

RE: If this article is true - MOCO SON MU - 4/23 09:26:44

And many thought they had a bad flu and still got over it.(nm) - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/23 09:29:17

Yep - the vast majority of those who had it thought it - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 09:28:54

Exactly, but the damage is done....nm - tigertix MU - 4/23 09:25:13

Much is done for sure - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 09:26:42

You would think - ashtray UF - 4/23 09:31:18

Looks like Miami-Dade is getting ready to try it - Mormad MU - 4/23 09:43:14

A couple of beaches have opened - ashtray UF - 4/23 09:46:28

Yup, that's what I'm paying attention to - Eggs MU - 4/23 09:55:00

Give this some thought: Cities/States (clusters of people - 90Tiger STL - 4/23 09:20:18

Yes, and now that hospitals are not be overwhelmed - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 09:26:16

Or, another possibility - not saying it's the case - Mormad MU - 4/23 09:22:41

the start and end dates and execution on these social - 90Tiger STL - 4/23 10:40:01

It may be a combination. Apparently the very young are - GA Tiger MU - 4/23 09:30:04

We know the comorbidities that leave people most - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 09:31:07

Or the strain in NY is a more deadly strain than - ashtray UF - 4/23 09:27:45

Most models took social distancing into account - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 09:27:26

The 2.2 million number did not - ashtray UF - 4/23 09:29:22

RE: The 2.2 million number did not - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 09:31:36

That would mean they predicted well over 450,000 deaths - kmawv8 MU - 4/23 09:49:17

They predicted 800K, then 600K, then 400K, then between - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 09:50:34

I've been following from the begining and agree the models - kmawv8 MU - 4/23 09:53:32

As for the other models with much higher death numbers - kmawv8 MU - 4/23 09:54:54

Yes. (nm) - ashtray UF - 4/23 09:33:37

That sort of makes sense though, intiially - Mormad MU - 4/23 09:28:48

And the only people we knew had it were the worst of the - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 09:30:09

Because you had to meet such strict conditions - ashtray UF - 4/23 09:33:06

Agreed - that is why I am less concerned with the decisions - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 09:35:12

definitely (nm) - ashtray UF - 4/23 09:36:26

I don't think anyone doubts that is true - Mormad MU - 4/23 09:16:00

It is worse than the flu in many ways - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 09:17:38

for some folks, it's less bad than the flu (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 4/23 09:20:44

Yes, viruses look for genetic predisposition they can attack - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 09:36:31

"It's totally under control..." - mizzoumurfkc KC - 4/23 09:14:50

Murf and Tex with their usual solid contributions(nm) - redngray MU - 4/23 09:22:23

lol rng (nm) - SwampTiger MU - 4/23 09:22:56

Meaning?(nm) - redngray MU - 4/23 09:25:25

you calling somebody out about contributions if funny (nm) - SwampTiger MU - 4/23 09:45:03

Well, no doubt you should be proud of your own posts - redngray MU - 4/23 11:21:10

you're a child (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 4/23 09:20:58

You're - mizzoumurfkc KC - 4/23 09:29:46

Hysteria huh? Thank you Dr. The hubris of derps here. - TexJohnson MU - 4/23 09:06:30

Based on initial predictions of deaths in the millions - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 09:15:51

The world took unprecendented preventative measures - TexJohnson MU - 4/23 09:20:07

Do you understand enough to know that flattening the curve - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/23 09:43:10

Most people are too hysterical to understand that and that - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 09:46:34

I'd call it pretty serious - Mormad MU - 4/23 09:19:40

LOL, Sux. - Emoji Man MSU - 4/23 09:07:56

Talk about creating your own fantasies,stop crying,karen - TexJohnson MU - 4/23 09:17:29

SuxJohnson is the original dick slurp derp. - Emoji Man MSU - 4/23 09:24:52

So funny - Wildcat KSU - 4/23 09:43:19

So true. Although the 👍🏾 is not SuxJohnson’s favorite thing - Emoji Man MSU - 4/23 09:48:51

Keep screaming at the sky, karen, LMAO - TexJohnson MU - 4/23 09:29:10

Nm - Emoji Man MSU - 4/23 09:46:33

SuxJohnson ➡️ 🍆😮 - Emoji Man MSU - 4/23 09:42:14

to some extent - meatiger MU - 4/23 08:52:14

We cannot stop the outbreaks - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 09:00:50

The problem is that a significant portion of our - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/23 09:28:22

We need leaders to lead - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/23 09:41:41

Who would be the best person to get that message out? - ashtray UF - 4/23 09:35:59

It cannot be done through press conferences and interviews. - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/23 09:50:38

Yeah, the media should shape the message - ashtray UF - 4/23 09:55:34