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BOWL PICKS...part one.
Posted on: December 11, 2018 at 10:12:46 CT
qbbearcat MU
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It’s BOWL SEASON. We had a really good year of picks. I didn’t post championship week picks on here but her is how we finished the regular season. All in all a pretty good year…specifically on my SEC picks finished 66% on those. Even more impressive when I was under .500 on my 5U picks. Hopefully we have a better bowl season than last year but sometimes these are really hard to pick as a lot of times it comes down to motivation. Here are my picks for the first 10 bowl games….will do more write ups later.
SEC PICKS: 87-19 SU 39-20-1 ATS +36.2U (66.1%)
OTHER PICKS: 68-16 SU 51-38-1 ATS +11.5U (57.3%)
TOTAL: 155-35 SU; 90-58-2 ATS +47.7 (60.8%)
SIDES: 69-43-2 +33.7U
TOTALS: 21-15 +14U
1 UNIT PLAYS: 21-17 +2.3U
2 UNIT PLAYS: 51-25 +47U
3 UNIT PLAYS: 15-12-1 +5.4U
5 UNIT PLAYS: 3-4-1 -7U
WEEK 1: 5-3 +3.4U
WEEK 2: 6-5 +2U
WEEK 3: 8-4 +5.2U
WEEK 4: 5-4 +4.2U
WEEK 5: 9-3 +9.3
WEEK 6: 8-6-1 +4U
WEEK 7: 6-6 -3U
WEEK 8: 6-4 +6.4U
WEEK 9: 10-3-1 +10.4U
WEEK 10: 6-5 +1.9U
WEEK 11: 8-5 +11.3
WEEK 12: 7-7 -5.8U
WEEK 13: 6-4 -1.5U
MIZZOU GAMES: 9-3 SU; 5-1-1 ATS +6.7U; 1-1 +.9U on totals
NEW MEXICO BOWL – UTAH STATE -8 vs NORTH TEXAS (2 UNITS) – this one will come down to the Aggies secondary. They were kind of lit up towards the end of the year but were able to come up with some INT’s to make up for that. Litrell is staying at NT and Utah State’s coach left for Texas Tech and they are brining back their old coach after failing at Oregon State, so stability is on the Mean Green’s side. This should be a shootout so I think it could come down to who has the ball last. Utah State survives but won’t cover and don’t be surprised if there is an upset here. UTAH STATE 38 NORTH TEXAS 34
CURE BOWL – TULANE -3.5 vs LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (NO PLAY) – battle of Louisiana in this one. Which ever team wins the ground game should win this one. Tulane’s D has been better at stopping the run all year long and they run a difficult run game to defend. This should be a big deal for both schools as neither reaches bowl games all that often. I expect this to be a low scoring and think the Green Wave find a way to win a close one. TULANE 24 LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 20
LAS VEGAS BOWL – FRESNO STATE -4 vs ARIZONA STATE (3 UNITS)– Fresno is coming of a huge win in the Mountain West title game over Boise at Boise. If Memphis would have held on to beat UCF then it would be the Bulldogs vs LSU instead of the Knights. Fresno is the real deal and I think their D will be the difference in this one. ASU will be missing their top WR as he will enter into the draft….that is a big piece missing for the Sun Devils. FRESNO STATE 37 ARIZONA STATE 17
CAMELLIA BOWL – GEORGIA SOUTHERN -1 vs EASTERN MICHIGAN (2 UNITS) – EMU’s defensive strength is pass rush and secondary..well Georgia Southern is going to be going ground and pound. Even with a few weeks to prepare that offense is difficult one to prepare for. GS also doesn’t turn it over, with only 5 giveaways all year long. EMU has already faced Army this year which will be similar to Georgia Southern but the problem is they got torched on the ground that game. Both D’s will play well but the option game will be too much to handle. GEORGIA SOUTHERN 27 EASTERN MICHIGAN 21
NEW ORLEANS BOWL – APPALACHAIN STATE -7 vs MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (NO PLAY) – App State will be without their coach who left for the Louisville job. This will be the last game for Brent Stockstill leading the Blue Raiders as he has had over 12K career passing yards. Oh and his dad is also the coach. App State is the better team and more consistent team but I think the Blue Raiders rise up and find a way to win a close one, but I’m not willing to be on it. To me it’s either MTSU wins outright or App State’s D controls things and they win going away. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 28 APPALACHAIN STATE 27
BOCA RATON BOWL – UAB -2.5 vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS (2 UNITS) – what a story UAB is…a few years ago they shut down the football program for a second time and now they are in a bowl and Conference USA champions. UNI is 0-5 in bowl games under coach Rod Carey…that along with how the Blazers finished the year, it’s hard to go against the Blazers in this one. UAB 30 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 20
FRISCO BOWL – OHIO -3 vs SAN DIEGO STATE (NO PLAY) – battle of the old coaches in this one…combined age of the coaches is 142 years old. So I imagine both will have their teams ready to go. Ohio won 5 of their last 6 to become bowl eligible while the Aztecs lost 3 of their last 5. I’m not sure the MAC is that great this year so it’s hard for me to believe too much in the Bobcats while SDSU has shown it’s capable as they have beaten Arizona State and Boise (at Boise). I think in the end talent wins out but could see this going either way. SAN DIEGO STATE 31 OHIO 27
GASPARILLA BOWL – MARSHALL -2.5 vs SOUTH FLORIDA (1 UNIT)– USF has lost 5 in a row to finish off the season and now they get a high flying Marshall team. This is a home game for USF so not sure they will be as motivated as a Herd team with some pretty good talent. I think there is a reason Marshall is favored in this one and they will show it against an inconsistent and uninspired Bulls team. MARSHALL 38 SOUTH FLORIDA 28
BAHAMAS BOWL – TOLEDO -5.5 vs FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (1 UNIT)– the dreaded 5.5 point spread in this one. I never seem to get these games right. Expect a shootout here as Toledo has scored 45+ in 4 of their last 5 games. FIU can put up some points as well averaging 34.6 points per game. I think that FIU’s QB James Morgan should have a big day against an average Toledo secondary. Toledo has been relying on the running game since losing their starting QB…not sure that will work consistently against FIU’s D. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 42 TOLEDO 38
IDAHO POTATO BOWL – BYU -12 vs WESTERN MICHIGAN (2 UNITS)– BYU is more talented and physical that the Broncos but I’m not sure they should be laying 12 points with their offense. WMU lost their QB in October but their freshman Eleby has been playing pretty solid. BYU’s D is legit but the Broncos have straight up wins over 3 of the best 4 defenses in the MAC this year. In the end I think BYU wins but I can’t trust them to win by double digits. BYU 27 WESTERN MICHIGAN 21
That will do it for part 1…will write up more bowl games later.
SEC PICKS: 87-19 SU 39-20-1 ATS +36.2U (66.1%)
OTHER PICKS: 68-16 SU 51-38-1 ATS +11.5U (57.3%)
TOTAL: 155-35 SU; 90-58-2 ATS +47.7 (60.8%)
SIDES: 69-43-2 +33.7U
TOTALS: 21-15 +14U
1 UNIT PLAYS: 21-17 +2.3U
2 UNIT PLAYS: 51-25 +47U
3 UNIT PLAYS: 15-12-1 +5.4U
5 UNIT PLAYS: 3-4-1 -7U
WEEK 1: 5-3 +3.4U
WEEK 2: 6-5 +2U
WEEK 3: 8-4 +5.2U
WEEK 4: 5-4 +4.2U
WEEK 5: 9-3 +9.3
WEEK 6: 8-6-1 +4U
WEEK 7: 6-6 -3U
WEEK 8: 6-4 +6.4U
WEEK 9: 10-3-1 +10.4U
WEEK 10: 6-5 +1.9U
WEEK 11: 8-5 +11.3
WEEK 12: 7-7 -5.8U
WEEK 13: 6-4 -1.5U
MIZZOU GAMES: 9-3 SU; 5-1-1 ATS +6.7U; 1-1 +.9U on totals
NEW MEXICO BOWL – UTAH STATE -8 vs NORTH TEXAS (2 UNITS) – this one will come down to the Aggies secondary. They were kind of lit up towards the end of the year but were able to come up with some INT’s to make up for that. Litrell is staying at NT and Utah State’s coach left for Texas Tech and they are brining back their old coach after failing at Oregon State, so stability is on the Mean Green’s side. This should be a shootout so I think it could come down to who has the ball last. Utah State survives but won’t cover and don’t be surprised if there is an upset here. UTAH STATE 38 NORTH TEXAS 34
CURE BOWL – TULANE -3.5 vs LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (NO PLAY) – battle of Louisiana in this one. Which ever team wins the ground game should win this one. Tulane’s D has been better at stopping the run all year long and they run a difficult run game to defend. This should be a big deal for both schools as neither reaches bowl games all that often. I expect this to be a low scoring and think the Green Wave find a way to win a close one. TULANE 24 LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 20
LAS VEGAS BOWL – FRESNO STATE -4 vs ARIZONA STATE (3 UNITS)– Fresno is coming of a huge win in the Mountain West title game over Boise at Boise. If Memphis would have held on to beat UCF then it would be the Bulldogs vs LSU instead of the Knights. Fresno is the real deal and I think their D will be the difference in this one. ASU will be missing their top WR as he will enter into the draft….that is a big piece missing for the Sun Devils. FRESNO STATE 37 ARIZONA STATE 17
CAMELLIA BOWL – GEORGIA SOUTHERN -1 vs EASTERN MICHIGAN (2 UNITS) – EMU’s defensive strength is pass rush and secondary..well Georgia Southern is going to be going ground and pound. Even with a few weeks to prepare that offense is difficult one to prepare for. GS also doesn’t turn it over, with only 5 giveaways all year long. EMU has already faced Army this year which will be similar to Georgia Southern but the problem is they got torched on the ground that game. Both D’s will play well but the option game will be too much to handle. GEORGIA SOUTHERN 27 EASTERN MICHIGAN 21
NEW ORLEANS BOWL – APPALACHAIN STATE -7 vs MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (NO PLAY) – App State will be without their coach who left for the Louisville job. This will be the last game for Brent Stockstill leading the Blue Raiders as he has had over 12K career passing yards. Oh and his dad is also the coach. App State is the better team and more consistent team but I think the Blue Raiders rise up and find a way to win a close one, but I’m not willing to be on it. To me it’s either MTSU wins outright or App State’s D controls things and they win going away. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 28 APPALACHAIN STATE 27
BOCA RATON BOWL – UAB -2.5 vs NORTHERN ILLINOIS (2 UNITS) – what a story UAB is…a few years ago they shut down the football program for a second time and now they are in a bowl and Conference USA champions. UNI is 0-5 in bowl games under coach Rod Carey…that along with how the Blazers finished the year, it’s hard to go against the Blazers in this one. UAB 30 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 20
FRISCO BOWL – OHIO -3 vs SAN DIEGO STATE (NO PLAY) – battle of the old coaches in this one…combined age of the coaches is 142 years old. So I imagine both will have their teams ready to go. Ohio won 5 of their last 6 to become bowl eligible while the Aztecs lost 3 of their last 5. I’m not sure the MAC is that great this year so it’s hard for me to believe too much in the Bobcats while SDSU has shown it’s capable as they have beaten Arizona State and Boise (at Boise). I think in the end talent wins out but could see this going either way. SAN DIEGO STATE 31 OHIO 27
GASPARILLA BOWL – MARSHALL -2.5 vs SOUTH FLORIDA (1 UNIT)– USF has lost 5 in a row to finish off the season and now they get a high flying Marshall team. This is a home game for USF so not sure they will be as motivated as a Herd team with some pretty good talent. I think there is a reason Marshall is favored in this one and they will show it against an inconsistent and uninspired Bulls team. MARSHALL 38 SOUTH FLORIDA 28
BAHAMAS BOWL – TOLEDO -5.5 vs FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (1 UNIT)– the dreaded 5.5 point spread in this one. I never seem to get these games right. Expect a shootout here as Toledo has scored 45+ in 4 of their last 5 games. FIU can put up some points as well averaging 34.6 points per game. I think that FIU’s QB James Morgan should have a big day against an average Toledo secondary. Toledo has been relying on the running game since losing their starting QB…not sure that will work consistently against FIU’s D. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 42 TOLEDO 38
IDAHO POTATO BOWL – BYU -12 vs WESTERN MICHIGAN (2 UNITS)– BYU is more talented and physical that the Broncos but I’m not sure they should be laying 12 points with their offense. WMU lost their QB in October but their freshman Eleby has been playing pretty solid. BYU’s D is legit but the Broncos have straight up wins over 3 of the best 4 defenses in the MAC this year. In the end I think BYU wins but I can’t trust them to win by double digits. BYU 27 WESTERN MICHIGAN 21
That will do it for part 1…will write up more bowl games later.
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BOWL PICKS...part one. - qbbearcat MU - 12/11 10:12:46
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