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Probably not...
Posted on: March 3, 2018 at 00:51:44 CT
bluetiger_ MU
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It's not over yet until we see what the other seed contenders do in their conference tournaments. We may still back into one of the last 4 seeds simply because our resume is fairly similar to several other teams, and our overall body of work is still good. But you lose control of your own destiny when you finish the season with 3 stinkers in a row.
Today, and the last week actually, have been killers, losing head to head games against 2 of the teams we are fighting against. It's just hard to see now how we would get a national seed before either TAMU or Georgia, who we are now a combined 0-3 against head to head. And that significantly narrows our odds.
Really disappointing closing to the season after putting ourselves in a great position for a national seed just a week ago. We pretty much played our way out of it with lackluster performances against TAMU, Ole Miss, and Georgia. And have no one to blame but ourselves. You just can't continue getting nothing from your bench, and have our 3 best scorers shoot 3-17, 4-13, 4-13, as Sophie, Frericks, and Porter did today, and expect to come close to beating a top 20 team. And the word is clearly out; pressure Mizzou and they will get rattled and fold and turn the ball over. Even an awful Ole Miss team did that to us.
Too bad, because Duke got upset today by NC State, and Arizona State rallied late and upset Oregon State, which was very favorable to us. We just couldn't take advantage of it tonight.
Now there are probably 5 teams fighting for the last 3 national seeds (I think Georgia and TAMU are likely both in now, even if they lose tomorrow, and Oregon State is out, and Duke probably out). Those 5 teams are Mizzou, Ohio State, Maryland, Stanford, and NC State. NC State should lose to Louisville tomorrow, although they barely survived today against Virginia Tech. Stanford should get one of the seeds now if they get to the finals of the PAC 12. And if either Ohio State or Maryland wins the B1G they are of course in.
So the most charitable reading I have is that there is probably just 1 seed left, and it will go to NC State, Ohio State/Maryland loser, or Mizzou. Maybe Duke is still in the mix too. Our best shot now is praying that Stanford gets upset by Arizona State and doesn't make the PAC 12 final, and Ohio State and/or Maryland get upset in the B1G semis Saturday and don't meet in the finals. I give Mizzou about a 25% chance now of backing into the last 4 seed. And those odds drop to about 10% if Stanford wins tomorrow and Maryland and Ohio State both get to the B1G finals.
Edited by bluetiger_ at 00:59:02 on 03/03/18
Today, and the last week actually, have been killers, losing head to head games against 2 of the teams we are fighting against. It's just hard to see now how we would get a national seed before either TAMU or Georgia, who we are now a combined 0-3 against head to head. And that significantly narrows our odds.
Really disappointing closing to the season after putting ourselves in a great position for a national seed just a week ago. We pretty much played our way out of it with lackluster performances against TAMU, Ole Miss, and Georgia. And have no one to blame but ourselves. You just can't continue getting nothing from your bench, and have our 3 best scorers shoot 3-17, 4-13, 4-13, as Sophie, Frericks, and Porter did today, and expect to come close to beating a top 20 team. And the word is clearly out; pressure Mizzou and they will get rattled and fold and turn the ball over. Even an awful Ole Miss team did that to us.
Too bad, because Duke got upset today by NC State, and Arizona State rallied late and upset Oregon State, which was very favorable to us. We just couldn't take advantage of it tonight.
Now there are probably 5 teams fighting for the last 3 national seeds (I think Georgia and TAMU are likely both in now, even if they lose tomorrow, and Oregon State is out, and Duke probably out). Those 5 teams are Mizzou, Ohio State, Maryland, Stanford, and NC State. NC State should lose to Louisville tomorrow, although they barely survived today against Virginia Tech. Stanford should get one of the seeds now if they get to the finals of the PAC 12. And if either Ohio State or Maryland wins the B1G they are of course in.
So the most charitable reading I have is that there is probably just 1 seed left, and it will go to NC State, Ohio State/Maryland loser, or Mizzou. Maybe Duke is still in the mix too. Our best shot now is praying that Stanford gets upset by Arizona State and doesn't make the PAC 12 final, and Ohio State and/or Maryland get upset in the B1G semis Saturday and don't meet in the finals. I give Mizzou about a 25% chance now of backing into the last 4 seed. And those odds drop to about 10% if Stanford wins tomorrow and Maryland and Ohio State both get to the B1G finals.
Edited by bluetiger_ at 00:59:02 on 03/03/18
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Probably not... - bluetiger_ MU - 3/3 00:51:44
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