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Mizzou national seed prospects...
Posted on: February 27, 2018 at 12:22:34 CT
bluetiger_ MU
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It looks more and more like it's going to come down to 9 teams fighting for the last 5 top 16 seeds that get you a home regional for the first two rounds. Going by current seed lines from ESPN, those 9 teams are :
3s: Missouri
4s: Ohio State, Georgia, Stanford, Duke
5s: Maryland, TAMU, Oregon State, NC State
I would pretty much draw a line there. The current 6 seed line has: Iowa, LSU, DePaul, South Florida. In theory an Iowa or LSU could make an amazing run to the finals of their conference tourneys, or even win it, and get in as a 4 seed, but that is highly unlikely.
In the SEC, we can get a huge leg up on Georgia with a head to head win. That's all we directly control here. We can hope also that TAMU gets upset by a Vandy team playing at home (not likely), or by LSU. In the B1G it's simple, root against Ohio State and Maryland. If they meet in the finals it's a good likelihood they both get in and take 2 of the last 5 seed slots open. Our resume compares better against Maryland than Ohio State, so between the two we need Maryland to lose the most.
That leaves the 4 PAC 12 and ACC teams, Stanford, Oregon State, Duke, and NC State. And we got a good break in their conference brackets. NC State and Duke will meet in the quarters as the 5 and 4 seeds, which is great for us. One of them will lose and not have a remarkable tournament. And the winner gets 1 seed Louisville in the semis, an almost certain loss.
In the PAC 12 it is fairly similar. Stanford and Oregon St are on the same side of the bracket, as the 2 and 3 seeds (with Oregon and UCLA on the other half). So one will knock the other off in the semis, at least, and not add much to their resume this weekend. The winner though will get a shot at an upset of Oregon or UCLA in the finals, which would lock up a top 16 seed. However, Stanford first has to get past USC, and Oregon State has to get past a tough Arizona State team. Our resume matches up much better against OSU than it does Stanford.
All this is very favorable to Mizzou I think. Only a few of the 8 teams we are fighting for the last 5 seeds have a decent shot at really helping their resumes this week and weekend. Several are going to knock themselves off. And we can seal the deal, regardless of what happens elsewhere, by beating Georgia. That gets us in as a 4 seed, and a win in the semis against the UT/SC winner gets us a 3 seed almost certainly.
3s: Missouri
4s: Ohio State, Georgia, Stanford, Duke
5s: Maryland, TAMU, Oregon State, NC State
I would pretty much draw a line there. The current 6 seed line has: Iowa, LSU, DePaul, South Florida. In theory an Iowa or LSU could make an amazing run to the finals of their conference tourneys, or even win it, and get in as a 4 seed, but that is highly unlikely.
In the SEC, we can get a huge leg up on Georgia with a head to head win. That's all we directly control here. We can hope also that TAMU gets upset by a Vandy team playing at home (not likely), or by LSU. In the B1G it's simple, root against Ohio State and Maryland. If they meet in the finals it's a good likelihood they both get in and take 2 of the last 5 seed slots open. Our resume compares better against Maryland than Ohio State, so between the two we need Maryland to lose the most.
That leaves the 4 PAC 12 and ACC teams, Stanford, Oregon State, Duke, and NC State. And we got a good break in their conference brackets. NC State and Duke will meet in the quarters as the 5 and 4 seeds, which is great for us. One of them will lose and not have a remarkable tournament. And the winner gets 1 seed Louisville in the semis, an almost certain loss.
In the PAC 12 it is fairly similar. Stanford and Oregon St are on the same side of the bracket, as the 2 and 3 seeds (with Oregon and UCLA on the other half). So one will knock the other off in the semis, at least, and not add much to their resume this weekend. The winner though will get a shot at an upset of Oregon or UCLA in the finals, which would lock up a top 16 seed. However, Stanford first has to get past USC, and Oregon State has to get past a tough Arizona State team. Our resume matches up much better against OSU than it does Stanford.
All this is very favorable to Mizzou I think. Only a few of the 8 teams we are fighting for the last 5 seeds have a decent shot at really helping their resumes this week and weekend. Several are going to knock themselves off. And we can seal the deal, regardless of what happens elsewhere, by beating Georgia. That gets us in as a 4 seed, and a win in the semis against the UT/SC winner gets us a 3 seed almost certainly.
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Mizzou national seed prospects... - bluetiger_ MU - 2/27 12:22:34