WEEK 2 SEC picks and other games (early this week)

Posted on: September 5, 2017 at 14:21:55 CT

Well Week 1 is in the books…and man was that ugly for a little while on Saturday. I expected the offense to pretty much do what they wanted but didn’t expect that performance out of the defense (at least in the first half). Obviously there is plenty of work to do to improve this team but luckily that can be done. Same goes for my picks. In SEC games we were 14-1 SU and 3-0 ATS +6U, however in other games we were 3-5-1 -6.1U and lost our only 5U play for the day in Louisville. SO basically broke even the first week. Oh well…on to another week.

SEC PICKS: 14-1 SU 3-0 +6U
OTHER PICKS: 9-0 SU 3-5-1 ATS -6.1
TOTAL: 23-1 SU; 6-5-1 ATS -.1U

5U PLAYS: 0-1 -5.5U
3U PLAYS: 2-0-1 +6U
2U PLAYS: 2-2 -.4U
1U PLAYS: 2-2 -.2U

SEC GAMES

ALABAMA -44 vs FRESNO STATE (1 UNIT) – Bama normally takes it easy week 2 after their opening big games. This isn’t a very good Fresno team though…don’t be fooled by their 66-0 week 1. However it appears their offense at least has a pulse this year with Jeff Tedford running the show now. Bama will have no trouble in this one…just depends on if they want to cover this number or not. I think they are up something like 42-0 early in the 3rd and take their foot off the gas…so I will take the points. ALABAMA 49 FRESNO STATE 10

ARKANSAS +3 vs TCU (NO PLAY) – can’t take much away from either of these teams week 1 games. The teams won by a combined score of 112-7. I have to give the slight edge to the Horned Frogs in this one…mainly due to QB play and I expect the Horned Frogs D to be much better this year. I think the number is pretty spot on though. TCU 27 ARKANSAS 24

AUBURN +5.5 @ CLEMSON – this is the most interesting game of the weekend if you ask me. This should be a pretty good defensive battle. I expect Clemson to keep Auburn in check for the most part with their front 7. I expect some of the same from Auburn as well but I think Kelly Bryant will be the difference in this one. He will make enough plays to be the difference. CLEMSON 27 AUBURN 20

GEORGIA +6 @ NOTRE DAME (2 UNITS UNDER 54) – this line has me confused so I’m going to stay away. Fromm will make his first road start but he still has two great weapons behind him to help. The UGA D will be tested as I was surprised by what ND was able to do to a pretty solid defense in Temple last week. They could give the Dogs some fits. Look for both teams to try to pound it on the ground. So I will take the under in this one in a game I think could go either way. GEORGIA 23 NOTRE DAME 20

MISSISSIPPI STATE -7 @ LOUISIANA TECH (4 UNITS) – think this line is off and jumped on it…already up to 8.5. I think Mississippi State will be able to control the line of scrimmage and keep LT in check. It will be a decent test and fully expect LT to stick around for awhile but think Mississippi State will simply be too much in the end. MISSISSIPPI STATE 42 LOUISIANA TECH 27

MIZZOU -2.5 VS SOUTH CAROLINA (1 UNIT UNDER 72. 2 UNITS on MIZZOU) – I get it the defense was bad. 4 plays cost the Tigers 262 yards and 28 points. I know you can’t take those away but if they just minimize mistakes it isn’t as bad as it looked. The main area that concerns me is tackling and LB play. Too many missed tackles and LB’s taking themselves out of plays by taking bad angles. Not sure if that can all get fixed in a week but we shall see. Nothing I saw Saturday from SC scared me though. NC STATE nearly outgained them 2:1 and held them to 31 yards rushing on 21 carries. So it’s not like they are bringing in an offensive juggernaught into CoMo. I also didn’t see much from the SC defense that leads me to believe that the Tigers won’t be able to move the ball and put up points. NC State was able to move the ball through the air pretty easily. So this week I imagine the defense will improve some and the offense won’t put up the gaudy numbers they did last week but I fully expect the energy in the stadium to be different this weekend compared to last. I’m going to take the under in this game as I think the O/U is a tad high due to the over reaction from week 1. I may be completely off base and they both score 50 but I think this game ends up with the winning team in the 30’s. Tigers IMO have the more explosive playmakers on offense and I expect the defense to feed off the crowd and perform much better this week after hearing all week about how horrible they are. MIZZOU 38 SOUTH CAROLINA 28


EVERYONE ELES BEATS THEIR FCS OPPONENTS
KENTUCKY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
MISSISSIPPI OVER UT MARTIN
TENNESSEE OVER INDIANA STATE
VANDERBILT OVER ALABAMA A&M
TEXAS A&M OVER NICHOLLS STATE
LSU OVER UT CHATTANOOGA
FLORIDA OVER NORTHERN COLORADO

OTHER GAMES I LIKE

CENTRAL FLORIDA -2 vs MEMPHIS (3 UNITS) – game moved to Friday with hurricane moving in Saturday. Wasn’t real impressed with Memphis last week so hopefully not an over reaction but I think UCF wins this one at home. CENTRAL FLORIDA 42 MEMPHIS 34

LOUISVILLE -9.5 @ North Carolina (2 UNITS) – let’s try Louisville again this week. LOUISVILLE 38 NORTH CAROLINA 24

WEST VIRGINIA -24 vs East Carolina (2 UNITS) Holgerson takes his frustration out from last week on the Pirates. WEST VIRGINIA 52 EAST CAROLINA 21

OREGON -13.5 vs NEBRASKA (1 UNIT) – Royce Freeman makes up for getting hurt in last years game. Might look at the over in this game as well. OREGON 49 NEBRASKA 31


ALSO CONSIDERING (might add some later in the week)
OHIO +4.5
IOWA -2.5
ARKANSAS STATE +14.5
KANSAS -5.5 (yes you read that right)
SYRACUSE -9
TULSA -15
SMU -13
MINNESOTA +2
UNDER BYU/UTAH game

Edited by qbbearcat at 14:22:32 on 09/05/17