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Rise in temperatures NOT due to change in sun
Posted on: August 28, 2017 at 10:27:44 CT
Silas MU
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The theory that solar activity is linked to rising global temperatures has been cast into doubt after scientists corrected an ancient error in the calculations.
Until now, the general consensus was that solar activity - in particular sunspots - and temperatures have been trending upwards since the harsh winters of the 17th century when the spots were thought to have been at a low.
But when the error was corrected, the records show there was no such culmination in solar activity in the late 20th century, suggesting climate change cannot be plotted using this sunspots method.
In fact, solar activity appears to have remained relatively stable since the 1700s while global temperatures have fluctuated.
According to the previous calculations, harsh winters in the 17th and 18th centuries corresponded with low numbers of sunspots, which suggested a link between climate and solar activity.
This period is known as the Maunder Minimum, and solar activity is said to have peaked in the late 20th century, sometimes called the Modern Grand Maximum, around the time of the Industrial Revolution.
However, a discrepancy between two different sunspot counts called this trend into question.
It is this discrepancy that has now been resolved and it shows there was no significant upwards trend over the past 300 years, as previously thought.
The correction, called the Sunspot Number Version 2.0 was led by Frédéric Clette, Director of the World Data Centre (WDC) SILSO, Ed Cliver of the National Solar Observatory and Leif Svalgaard of Stanford University.
It effectively nullifies the claim that there has been a Modern Grand Maximum.
The results were announced at the International Astronomical Union (IAU) General Assembly in Honolulu, Hawaii, and make it difficult to explain observed changes in the climate that started in the 18th century as being significantly influenced by solar trends.
Two methods of counting the sunspot number, known as the Wolf Sunset Number and the Group Sunspot Number, showed different levels of solar activity before 1885, and around 1945.
The Group Sunspot Number had a major error that showed a gradual increase in solar activity for the past 300 years.
The most important correction to the data is 'a lowering by about 18 per cent of all numbers after 1947, to remove the bias produced by a new counting method started in 1947 in Zürich,' a spokesperson from the Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) told The Register.
But after recalibration, there is no significant differences between the Wolf Sunset Number and the Group Sunspot Number.
The Group Sunspot was eventually discontinued after 1998 due to the inconsistency.
The limitations of early telescopes led to questions about the accuracy of the constant counting of sunspots for the last 300 years, leading to the Group Sunspot number being started in 1998.
Until now, the general consensus was that solar activity - in particular sunspots - and temperatures have been trending upwards since the harsh winters of the 17th century when the spots were thought to have been at a low.
But when the error was corrected, the records show there was no such culmination in solar activity in the late 20th century, suggesting climate change cannot be plotted using this sunspots method.
In fact, solar activity appears to have remained relatively stable since the 1700s while global temperatures have fluctuated.
According to the previous calculations, harsh winters in the 17th and 18th centuries corresponded with low numbers of sunspots, which suggested a link between climate and solar activity.
This period is known as the Maunder Minimum, and solar activity is said to have peaked in the late 20th century, sometimes called the Modern Grand Maximum, around the time of the Industrial Revolution.
However, a discrepancy between two different sunspot counts called this trend into question.
It is this discrepancy that has now been resolved and it shows there was no significant upwards trend over the past 300 years, as previously thought.
The correction, called the Sunspot Number Version 2.0 was led by Frédéric Clette, Director of the World Data Centre (WDC) SILSO, Ed Cliver of the National Solar Observatory and Leif Svalgaard of Stanford University.
It effectively nullifies the claim that there has been a Modern Grand Maximum.
The results were announced at the International Astronomical Union (IAU) General Assembly in Honolulu, Hawaii, and make it difficult to explain observed changes in the climate that started in the 18th century as being significantly influenced by solar trends.
Two methods of counting the sunspot number, known as the Wolf Sunset Number and the Group Sunspot Number, showed different levels of solar activity before 1885, and around 1945.
The Group Sunspot Number had a major error that showed a gradual increase in solar activity for the past 300 years.
The most important correction to the data is 'a lowering by about 18 per cent of all numbers after 1947, to remove the bias produced by a new counting method started in 1947 in Zürich,' a spokesperson from the Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) told The Register.
But after recalibration, there is no significant differences between the Wolf Sunset Number and the Group Sunspot Number.
The Group Sunspot was eventually discontinued after 1998 due to the inconsistency.
The limitations of early telescopes led to questions about the accuracy of the constant counting of sunspots for the last 300 years, leading to the Group Sunspot number being started in 1998.
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Rise in temperatures NOT due to change in sun - Silas MU - 8/28 10:27:44
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