Models are not simply guesswork

Posted on: August 21, 2017 at 12:57:10 CT

they are trying to take things that have multiple inputs and explaining outcomes, and from that knowledge predict the future. You imply that it is total guesses (maybe you don't mean that, but you imply that). I work on models all the time. All models have errors, and every modeler deals with those errors all of the time. Interestingly, what we measure has had such a move that making a model then becomes actually easier, because there are likely fewer factors that affected that move.