I agree, and a few more things to add...

Posted on: January 20, 2017 at 11:59:04 CT

Yes, if Mizzou were to run the table in what I would call the 'winnable' games remaining, and hold our SEC losses to 6, we would finish 10-6 in the conference. Which would be in our favor. It would certainly be a higher conference finish than at least a few of the other SEC teams currently projected as being in. I think the selection committee would consider that a plus for us. It's hard to imagine a 10-6 team from a good Power 5 conference being left out of the NCAA. Unless, Ahem, they have a mediocre RPI and an awful non-conference schedule. I think an 8-8 conference finish though, and an 18-12 overall record, puts us in the NIT instead, almost certainly.

If my analysis seemed overly negative, I would point out a few things:

There is still a lot of basketball left in the season, about one-third of the games remain for every team. So a lot positive could happen for Mizzou that would greatly enhance our chance of getting in. And of course, a lot negative. A road loss @ Arkansas next Monday would wipe out any good will we earned with that tough win last night over TAMU.

Since there are so many games left, RPIs will change to some extent, and the resumes of the teams we will be measured against for inclusion in the tourney will change too, some for the better, some for the worse. Although we should hope that all the teams we have played or will play will keep or increase their RPI rankings. We have the potential to play 9 games against top 25 RPI teams this year, and though we are currently 1-3 against that group we have 5 more games to go. So we don't want a TAMU to fall too far. That's easily our signature win at this point in the season, so they need to finish strong.

I neglected to mention that we will have a chance in the SEC tournament to further enhance our resume. Getting at least to the semis there and knocking off several more NCAA teams would really help us.

Right now the bracketology on ESPN, which is usually very accurate, has 7 SEC teams in, at the following seeds:

1 South Carolina
1 Miss State
6 Kentucky
6 TAMU
7 Auburn
7 Tennessee
8 LSU

We are listed as in the 'next 4 out' group, after the 'first 4 out' group.

Lots of games to go. But at least we now have one win on our resume that I would consider 'significant', and more chances to come. TAMU needs to finish strong to keep last nights win significant. I'd still rate our shot at no better than 50/50 though. That percentage would change a lot if we can take care of very good Auburn and Kentucky teams at home and Arkansas on the road in our next 3 games.

Edited by bluetiger_ at 12:19:34 on 01/20/17