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Yes it is, what happened is...
Posted on: November 21, 2016 at 15:26:57 CT
bluetiger_ MU
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we were bunched really close with about 8 teams, and we gained about a full percentage point on our raw number while every team above us lost ground or gained much less on their number than we did. So we jumped 7 teams in the rankings and are in a virtual tie with Kansas for the #6 spot:
Kansas .66746
Mizzou .66744
Can't get much closer than that. And we are both just narrowly behind Florida, believe it or not, for the #5 RPI ranking. Florida is at .66979. The gap between Florida and the top 4 teams in the nation though is astronomical (by RPI standards), so Wisconsin, Texas, and Nebraska will keep jumping each other for the top 3 positions and Minnesota is pretty much locked in at #4.
That's the good news.
The bad new is after all that shuffling and us moving from #14 to #7, all these same teams are still bunched very closely together. Here are our leads over the teams right below us:
.00121 over BYU
.00232 over Stanford
.00270 over North Carolina
.00305 over Washington
.00603 over UCLA
To put that in perspective, if a team has a really good week, their score can increase a maximum of about .01000. Typically increases or decreases average more closer to .00500. So we are very vulnerable with those 5 teams directly below us now.
We are .1129 over #13 San Diego, so hopefully that lead is safe. And we could possibly pass Kansas, although they finish with #41 Baylor, but we have a far tougher schedule than they do so we could gain ground there.
Bottom line is we will be sitting somewhere between 6 and 12 in the final RPI, and my wild ass guess is it will likely be in the 9-12 range. Just hard to predict with the margin separating the teams from 5-12 is so small.
But we have positioned ourselves very nicely at this point. Mailing in the game against SC may have really cost us though, with there being so many teams bunched up so close in the rankings. Our winning percentage, worth 25% of our RPI number, is going to finish at 83.3%, when a win against SC would have had us finish at 86.6%.
Edited by bluetiger_ at 15:34:43 on 11/21/16
Kansas .66746
Mizzou .66744
Can't get much closer than that. And we are both just narrowly behind Florida, believe it or not, for the #5 RPI ranking. Florida is at .66979. The gap between Florida and the top 4 teams in the nation though is astronomical (by RPI standards), so Wisconsin, Texas, and Nebraska will keep jumping each other for the top 3 positions and Minnesota is pretty much locked in at #4.
That's the good news.
The bad new is after all that shuffling and us moving from #14 to #7, all these same teams are still bunched very closely together. Here are our leads over the teams right below us:
.00121 over BYU
.00232 over Stanford
.00270 over North Carolina
.00305 over Washington
.00603 over UCLA
To put that in perspective, if a team has a really good week, their score can increase a maximum of about .01000. Typically increases or decreases average more closer to .00500. So we are very vulnerable with those 5 teams directly below us now.
We are .1129 over #13 San Diego, so hopefully that lead is safe. And we could possibly pass Kansas, although they finish with #41 Baylor, but we have a far tougher schedule than they do so we could gain ground there.
Bottom line is we will be sitting somewhere between 6 and 12 in the final RPI, and my wild ass guess is it will likely be in the 9-12 range. Just hard to predict with the margin separating the teams from 5-12 is so small.
But we have positioned ourselves very nicely at this point. Mailing in the game against SC may have really cost us though, with there being so many teams bunched up so close in the rankings. Our winning percentage, worth 25% of our RPI number, is going to finish at 83.3%, when a win against SC would have had us finish at 86.6%.
Edited by bluetiger_ at 15:34:43 on 11/21/16
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Yes it is, what happened is... - bluetiger_ MU - 11/21 15:26:57