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That appears to me to be quite partisan and illogical.
Posted on: July 29, 2016 at 11:16:26 CT
JeffB MU
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"The nation is nothing like it was in '48. This year it comes down a lot to FL, OH, PA, MI and a few others. '48-84 or so, the nation was not THAT partisan. And today it is."
I agree that the nation is very different than it was in '48, but what in the world does the fact that the nation is very partisan or that "it comes down a lot to FL, OH, PA, MI and a few others" have to do with the hypothesis that whoever is ahead in the polls taken completely after both conventions have ended will be the eventual winner?
"I think FAR fews Dems will go the way of Trump as GOPers will go to Hillary as well. Folks who know what they are talking about see the threat Don would pose if he got in office and will do what they can to assure that doesn't happen."
I guess you are saying that fewer Democrats will vote for Trump than Republicans will vote for Hillary, and perhaps that is true. On the other hand, both candidates have very high negative ratings and there are MANY who "are talking about see the threat {Hillary} would pose if {s}he got in office and will do what they can to assure that doesn't happen."
There are a lot of hard feelings among the Bernie bros, some of whom are championing #Demexit, and there are large numbers of voters who just don't trust Hillary... and then about 1/3 of Democrats are actually pro-life, even as the Democrats have promulgated the most anti-life platform in their history.
In any event, most people will probably have a pretty good idea of who they will be voting for after they have already followed the primaries and both of the conventions. You have yet to make the case why they have always done so in the past... but now that pattern will change.
I think someone could make a reasonable case that "this time will be different", but you haven't done so here.
Edited by JeffB at 11:24:47 on 07/29/16
I agree that the nation is very different than it was in '48, but what in the world does the fact that the nation is very partisan or that "it comes down a lot to FL, OH, PA, MI and a few others" have to do with the hypothesis that whoever is ahead in the polls taken completely after both conventions have ended will be the eventual winner?
"I think FAR fews Dems will go the way of Trump as GOPers will go to Hillary as well. Folks who know what they are talking about see the threat Don would pose if he got in office and will do what they can to assure that doesn't happen."
I guess you are saying that fewer Democrats will vote for Trump than Republicans will vote for Hillary, and perhaps that is true. On the other hand, both candidates have very high negative ratings and there are MANY who "are talking about see the threat {Hillary} would pose if {s}he got in office and will do what they can to assure that doesn't happen."
There are a lot of hard feelings among the Bernie bros, some of whom are championing #Demexit, and there are large numbers of voters who just don't trust Hillary... and then about 1/3 of Democrats are actually pro-life, even as the Democrats have promulgated the most anti-life platform in their history.
In any event, most people will probably have a pretty good idea of who they will be voting for after they have already followed the primaries and both of the conventions. You have yet to make the case why they have always done so in the past... but now that pattern will change.
I think someone could make a reasonable case that "this time will be different", but you haven't done so here.
Edited by JeffB at 11:24:47 on 07/29/16
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That appears to me to be quite partisan and illogical. - JeffB MU - 7/29 11:16:26