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MizzouRah's Picks (Week Three)
Posted on: September 25, 2020 at 11:57:18 CT
MizzouRah MU
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Well, the opening weekend of Missouri/SEC football is finally here and I am off to an unusually great start ATS this year. I only had one selection last week (Miami) which came home easily and the ATS record on the year is a perfect 6-0. I suppose I might be a bit gunshy but I am going to continue to try to put my "toothpicks" on a limited number of games as you will see here.
I happened to be in the car last night when Tiger Talk came on the radio. I have already been impressed with Coach Drinkwitz but this got me even more fired up. I think he understands strategy and analytics at a level our previous coach not only wouldn't understand but he would be unaware of the fact that there is an entirely different way of thinking about the game from his more traditional mandset.
I am also very pleased with how early recruiting has gone and the fact he is secure enough to reach out and involve Coach Pinkel with the program with a greater role. This recruiting shows up immediately as Ennis Rakestraw will start on Saturday as a true freshman CB. This young man was offered by both Texas and Alabama. However, it says a bit about our depth in the secondary that this young man will be not just contributing but starting.
Many folks don't realize that a Top 20 nationally MU defense from last year returns not only most of the starters but the best parts of the coaching staff as well. This should help keep the Tigers competitive in some games the "experts" think we will lose.
ESPN actually projects MU to go 4-6 this year which given the schedule and these very unusual circumstances, I would be rather pleased with. No matter what, I think the long run projection will be a good one for Mizzou football.
You might notice I have spent a lot of time not talking about the actual game MU has tomorrow night. Well, that's because Alabama (-27.5) is obviously a powerhouse and I suppose people expect me to make a pick on this game. Again, when one considers the spread opened at 19.5 this summer and MU's COVID issues are concerning but less concerning than they were expected to be there is some indication there may be a bit of value on the home team.
I'm not going use a pick on this one though. I think the spread is probably going to be very close to the actual game outcome. At this point, I won't be attending an MU game for the first time in a season since maybe 1983. I hope to maybe make the Kentucky game but whether I attend in person or not, I am grateful to watch MU football tomorrow and rather than make an official pick, I am just going to hope for the best!
Another game I considered taking was Oklahoma. I have heard that K-State only has three defensive backs available which could be a disaster for the 'Cats but I will sit this game out as well.
With that out of the way, let's get to the official picks and see if we can keep things rolling!
FLORIDA (-13.5) at Ole Miss - I think the Kiffin hype is going to be a little out of control and Florida has the better players and I think a considerably better coach. I look for the Gators to pour it on here.
Everyone thinks LOUISVILLE (+3) may have been incredibly overrated. Well, follows of this blog knew we weren't surprised by the way Miami handled things. I think this spread is an overreaction to last week and I'll take the Cardinals here.
I am going to go way off the beaten path to take LIBERTY (-7) hosting Florida International. The Flames dominated the running game against Western Kentucky and that usually leads to continued success.
I'm also going to take LSU (-16.5) as even with all the losses I think there is a huge talent differential here.
Finally, and I'm a little unsure of this one. I will take TEXAS TECH (+17.5). Lubbock is a really tough place to play UTEP is just a horrible team so that doesn't show me much. I know the line was higher earlier in the week but I still see some value here.
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non Crimson Tide) team!
I happened to be in the car last night when Tiger Talk came on the radio. I have already been impressed with Coach Drinkwitz but this got me even more fired up. I think he understands strategy and analytics at a level our previous coach not only wouldn't understand but he would be unaware of the fact that there is an entirely different way of thinking about the game from his more traditional mandset.
I am also very pleased with how early recruiting has gone and the fact he is secure enough to reach out and involve Coach Pinkel with the program with a greater role. This recruiting shows up immediately as Ennis Rakestraw will start on Saturday as a true freshman CB. This young man was offered by both Texas and Alabama. However, it says a bit about our depth in the secondary that this young man will be not just contributing but starting.
Many folks don't realize that a Top 20 nationally MU defense from last year returns not only most of the starters but the best parts of the coaching staff as well. This should help keep the Tigers competitive in some games the "experts" think we will lose.
ESPN actually projects MU to go 4-6 this year which given the schedule and these very unusual circumstances, I would be rather pleased with. No matter what, I think the long run projection will be a good one for Mizzou football.
You might notice I have spent a lot of time not talking about the actual game MU has tomorrow night. Well, that's because Alabama (-27.5) is obviously a powerhouse and I suppose people expect me to make a pick on this game. Again, when one considers the spread opened at 19.5 this summer and MU's COVID issues are concerning but less concerning than they were expected to be there is some indication there may be a bit of value on the home team.
I'm not going use a pick on this one though. I think the spread is probably going to be very close to the actual game outcome. At this point, I won't be attending an MU game for the first time in a season since maybe 1983. I hope to maybe make the Kentucky game but whether I attend in person or not, I am grateful to watch MU football tomorrow and rather than make an official pick, I am just going to hope for the best!
Another game I considered taking was Oklahoma. I have heard that K-State only has three defensive backs available which could be a disaster for the 'Cats but I will sit this game out as well.
With that out of the way, let's get to the official picks and see if we can keep things rolling!
FLORIDA (-13.5) at Ole Miss - I think the Kiffin hype is going to be a little out of control and Florida has the better players and I think a considerably better coach. I look for the Gators to pour it on here.
Everyone thinks LOUISVILLE (+3) may have been incredibly overrated. Well, follows of this blog knew we weren't surprised by the way Miami handled things. I think this spread is an overreaction to last week and I'll take the Cardinals here.
I am going to go way off the beaten path to take LIBERTY (-7) hosting Florida International. The Flames dominated the running game against Western Kentucky and that usually leads to continued success.
I'm also going to take LSU (-16.5) as even with all the losses I think there is a huge talent differential here.
Finally, and I'm a little unsure of this one. I will take TEXAS TECH (+17.5). Lubbock is a really tough place to play UTEP is just a horrible team so that doesn't show me much. I know the line was higher earlier in the week but I still see some value here.
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non Crimson Tide) team!
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MizzouRah's Picks (Week Three) - MizzouRah MU - 9/25 11:57:18