MizzouRah's Picks Week IV

Posted on: September 19, 2019 at 13:35:37 CT

Well "thanks" to some absolutely brutal luck last week, we had our first losing week of the season at 2-4-1. Iowa wins but didn't get the money, Colorado State was basically an equal team to Arkansas before imploding late and we get the push on Kentucky vs. Florida in a complete fluke and due to a very poor decision of Florida to score a late TD when literally that was the only way outside of a botched kneel down they could have lost the game!

So it's frustrating but I am still 12-10-1 on the year ATS and we have another set of games to get after.

South Carolina (+9.5) at MIZZOU - It says a lot about Mizzou fans that this has a big game feel (around the fanbase) at least even after the disaster of a loss to Wyoming. Two "A" type performances have something to do with that and a general desire to make up for the rather fluky loss last year and compete in the Eastern Division (at least as the clear #2 to Georgia).

Normally, I would bet against the freshman QB going on the road for the first time but I think this South Carolina QB has more talent and poise than we might expect in this situation. I think the key for MU on this one isn't necessarily to win big but just to find a way to get this monkey off their backs. I'm pretty confident the Tigers pull this one out but blowing out South Carolina is a rare occurence for this bunch and the Gamecocks are going to compete for the full 60 minutes.

Let's take MU 34-28 but SOUTH CAROLINA IS THE PICK

I know I have some of my Nebraska friends who comment on these posts and I really want to pick the Husker games but then the line moves wildly as this Illinois game has. I think Illinois fans got way ahead of themselves after beating up on a horrible team (more on that later) and I watched enough of the EMU game to tell that was not a fluke. I can see a backdoor cover here though so here is a rare "bet" for this blog.

NEBRASKA FIRST HALF -7 IS THE PICK IN THIS GAME. Huskers are clearly the better team but can they focus for the full 60 minutes?

I am hesitant to pick against MIZZOU (and I doubt I put any "toothpicks" on that game) partially becuase the Tigers have looked great when they have been on. This led to an easy cover for WEST VIRGINIA (-4) last week. Well, I don't know why BC forgot how to tackle but WVU is going to bring ku back to reality here. WEST VIRGINIA WINS BY 14

14.5 is a lot of points but I don't care. GIVE ME GEORGIA as they blow the doors off a Notre Dame team that couldn't even run the ball that well against New Mexico.

I watched in complete shock as K-State beat Mississippi State last week and Kentucky is getting credit for competing with an over rated Florida team (in my opinion). Here is my chance to take advantage of recency bias as I think MSU settles on a QB this week and beats Kentucky by 13. MISSISSIPPI STATE (-6) is the pick.

I also feel Mississippi is getting plenty of credit for beating a poor Arkansas team. Defense travels so the better team (CALIFORNIA + 2.5) wins outright on the road.

Akron (blown out by Illinois) is HORRIBLE. Give me TROY -17.5 in a game I really like this week.

I'm far from sold on Northwestern but this should be a low scoring game so I'LL TAKE THE WILDCATS (+9) and hold my nose doing it.

As I said, I think Florida is really not that great and over rated on the lines. I really want to hold my nose and take Tennessee at plus 14 but this game is a NO PLAY. My brain says take the Vols but then I remember I'm betting on a team that can screw anything up.

So that's all for this week! Good luck to your (non Gamecock) team!