Polls versus Computer Ratings

Posted on: November 18, 2018 at 17:49:26 CT

It’s apple and oranges, but I compared the average poll standing (AP and Coaches) versus the average computer rating (Sagarin, Massey, ESPN). I then ranked teams in terms of how their average poll standing compared to the average computer rating. Here are the biggest disparities.

Poll Standing Higher Than Computer Rating

Army (Poll Standing 30 spots higher than computer rating)
Utah State (18)
Syracuse (18)
Pitt (18)
Kentucky (12)
Northwestern (11)
UCF (10)

Team With Computer Ratings Higher Than Poll Standing

Auburn (unranked, computer rating = 19)
Texas A&M (unranked, computer rating = 17)
Miss State (21 in poll, computer rating = 11)
Iowa (unranked, computer rating = 15)
Missouri (unranked, computer rating = 13)

My theory is that once you get outside the Top 5 or so, the voters’ thinking morphs from “what are the best teams” to “what teams are having the best season”. That is the only way to explain Army in the Top 25. Political correctness is another way to view what is going on – its just not PC to have the Top 25 loaded with teams from the best conferences – that’s why you have all those SEC teams unranked.