OKIETIGER

It is funny how '04/'05 seems like a taboo topic around here these days, but since it was actually brought up recently (amidst the “Screw Quin” and “Screw Iam4Mizzou” and “Screw You” posts), I figured this was a good time to share some stuff that’s been floating around in my head...don’t be scared...well, be a little scared.

There are quite obvious reasons for optimism and pessimism for this upcoming year, but I'm actually pretty damn intrigued simply because there are so many unknowns. It's actually kinda refreshing...people can say "the weight of the investigation will be off our shoulders, and we'll be much better" or "Bleeping Quin couldn't do anything with a senior laden team, so we'll be lucky to win 8 games next year", but fact is, either could be right, and nobody knows a damn thing. And after spending the three months before last season being far too nervous that we weren't going to live up to expectations, I'm actually enjoying the unknowns...at least for now...at some point we have to do something no Mizzou team seems to have ever done and actually live up to high expectations when those expectations present themselves, but for now we definitely don’t have to worry about that. So without further adieu...

Reasons for '04/'05 pessimism

Bleeping Quin couldn't do anything with a senior laden team. Granted. He is working with an almost brand new cast of characters this year, and that might not be a bad thing, but yes...once again, he took a highly-ranked team and turned it into a bubble (or worse) team, and how many times can this be tolerated? Now he's dealing with a bunch of inexperienced players and a new coaching staff, and we expect to be better? Might be hard.

Lack of depth inside. We were spoiled by AJ and Tra (especially AJ) for four years. Now we have Linas and...well, a small supporting cast. Assuming Ferg is back (and that’s not a 100% confident assumption), we have three 4's and 5's, all of which have quite obvious weaknesses. I'm curious to see what Ferg can do since he really stepped up his game in the World University Championships (or whatever that thing was called) last season...but we can only go by what he's done in a Mizzou uniform to date, and his biggest asset has been "Has Five Fouls". KY? Tries real hard, but Has Five Fouls. Kalen Grimes? Sounds like he's in better shape right now than some had imagined, but nonetheless...this unit is an obvious step backward from last year.

Relying on a freshman at point doesn't usually pay off huge immediate dividends. We talk about how Jason Horton's going to solve our problems and how that was our biggest weakness last year...yes it probably WAS our biggest weakness last year, but you simply cannot rely on a 170-pound freshman with a blood clot thingy (or lighter than 170 after taking this time off with said blood clot thingy) to lead us to the promised land. He could be the answer we are looking for, or he could be limited like Wesley Stokes. I've seen in person that he's very quick and has a great 3-point shot, but I saw that in a scrimmage. Ricky Clemons was All-World in those same scrimmages. It means nothing until he proves it on the court, and relying on a freshman point guard to lead a team is a scary proposition...even with a coaching staff with two former point guards.

Lack of coaching chemistry coming from all new parts. It's exciting thinking about the possibilities of increased pressure/slashing that Watkins might bring to the table and the discipline and actual X's & O's system that Meyer might bring to the table, but the fact is, it might take a while for these new pieces to mesh. And if we struggle this year, will we get another season with these same coaching puzzle pieces? Probably not.

Conley & Kleiza could take 95% of our shots. We know both of these players can take over a game. But what happens if one of them is not on? Will we see a lot of Gilbert-like 2-for-17 performances, or will they become more focused on passing and getting everyone else involved? Will Linas' passing improve enough to make that an okay thing, or should he really shoot every time he touches the ball? We know Conley will likely score 0 in one or two games and score 35 in one or two...but how will this affect the team's performance? These are really important questions that have no answer.

We will have to rely somewhat on Jimmy McKinney, and he seriously regressed last year. Something I mentioned during the season, and something I worry about now is this: J-Mac came here with the reputation of "He knows how to win." The thing is, he played for Vashon. Everybody wins at Vashon. At Vashon, he didn't learn how to lose. I remember seeing him take a major leadership role in something like his first or second collegiate game...when we were struggling against USC in Anaheim. I saw him on the bench really giving a verbal lift to the team and doing whatever it took on the court to win. I was so unbelievably optimistic about his future at that time. But he never had to deal with slumps and struggles at Vashon, and the slumps and struggles that he's faced in his first two years seem to have seriously damaged his confidence in his abilities. He'll make a bad pass, slap himself, and make two more bad passes. He'll get caught on a screen and give up an open 3-pointer, slap himself, and give up two more open 3-pointers. He hasn't adjusted to adversity, and he needs to. Until he does, our guard situation is still one step away from being an asset instead of a liability.

Reasons for '04/'05 optimism

Well...talent and depth. For those who haven’t looked at the roster from a pure talent and potential standpoint in a while--though we all know that talent alone doesn’t make for a successful season--take a peek.

Linas Kleiza -- Wider variety of post moves than AJ, rebounding machine. Could go for 30 on any given night.

Jason Conley -- Leading scorer in the nation a couple years ago, was the main cog in the mini-run that the Tigers made last year when they were flirting with the NCAA’s again (and when reknowned basketball expert Billy Packer said that Mizzou was his favorite to win the title...yes, the ‘reknowned expert’ comment was complete and utter sarcasm). Could go for 30 on any given night.

Thomas Gardner -- Will be an all-Big XII defender in the next year or two, quick enough to stay with small guards, strong enough to guard a small forward. Very streaky shooter, could go for 25 on any given night, but even when his shot is off he’s a huge asset when he’s on the court.

Jimmy McKinney -- Obvious strengths, obvious weaknesses. Another on-or-off shooter, but is clutch from the FT line down the stretch. Could go for 20 on any given night...even if it all comes from the line.

Marshall Brown -- A taller Rickey Paulding? The rumors about him growing in height/weight and turning into a power forward were false, but the rumors about his impressive jumping and athletic abilities were not. He’s apparently raw like Paulding was (e.g. he’ll progress as both a shooter and defender but might be on-and-off at first), but he’s probably got the biggest upside of all the freshmen. Ugh, I just used the word ‘upside’. And by the way, a disclaimer: anything I say here about the incoming freshman is based on observations by either me, recruiting ‘gurus’, or Tigerboard posters watching scrimmages/all-star games. So take all of these comments with a grain of salt...well, even more of a grain of salt than you would any other comment.

Jason Horton -- I hate to have to rely on him from day one, but he’s got a beautiful stroke and it immediately the quickest guy on the team. Quin mentioned the fact that Meyer was big on high screens and freeing up guards...well, you have to think he had Horton’s 3-point stroke and vision in mind with that. Could be a very nice coaching relationship (assuming the coaching staff survives beyond this year).

Glen Dandridge -- Sounds like the guy has cajones. He’s the best shooter in this class, and it sounds like this guy will be willing to take the big shot from day one. I can’t figure he gets a ton of playing time this year playing behind Conley/Gardner/McKinney and fighting for PT with Brown, but he could have a Clarence-like frosh season, where he doesn’t score a lot, but puts up 15-20 once or twice when he gets on a roll.

Kevin Young -- He has five fouls to give! Honestly, for this team to be successful, KY has to improve. Do I think he will? Well...I’ll give a ‘probably’. We don’t need a TON out of him, and he’s capable of pulling down 10 boards any night where he’s not immediately in foul trouble. He throws his large body around and tries harder than anybody, and that is a nice positive. Becoming more reliable on offense or defense (his choice) would lead to a few more wins here. We’ll see.

Jeffrey Ferguson -- Another “we’ll see”. Again, he displayed offensive talent in international competition, and (ignoring the fact that we don’t know for sure whether or not he’ll be on the team) he can use the major opportunity to earn a starting job as nice inspiration. But again, we’ll see.

Spencer Laurie -- Could be the biggest surprise on the squad next year. He had the quickest hands on the team last year but physically and mentally wasn’t ready for big-time competition. Physically he’s a giant leap forward already, but we’ll have to wait and see about the “mentally” part. Everybody knows he can shoot, but he apparently wasn’t ready to show people that just yet last year.

Kalen Grimes -- A cross between Kevin Young and AJ? Definitely more upside (damn, I need to stop using that word) than KY, but we’ll see if he has the shot-blocking and scoring abilities needed to fulfill that equation. His stock dropped with every recruiting ranking that came out...he went from a potential McD’s All-American to a barely Top 100 prospect. He’s admitted that when the inspiration’s there, he has the ability to “flip the switch”, so to speak (which definitely makes him a Snyder-style player!), and if he’s an immediate upgrade over Young, then that will only make the prospects for this team better.

Bottom line: there’s talent on this roster. Can we harness it? Nobody knows...though some think they have a pretty good idea. We shall see.

The investigation's over. Don’t know whether this is a huge point or a non-issue. We really have to wait and see, but with the pressure that Quin and his players put on themselves to do well last season, this might be a big deal. They wanted badly to win last season but weren’t mentally ready to do it...and every time something bad happened, it turned into an avalanche. Coach’s fault? Hell yes, but with that kind of investigation, fair or unfair, lingering over their heads, there’s only so much that a coach could do to prevent the snowball effect.

It's a new year. Every great coach in basketball history had aberrations, seasons where nothing could go right and nobody could explain it. Is Quin a great coach? Obviously not yet, but if they use the disappointment as a growing and bonding experience, good things could happen. Consequently, if it has permanently damaged the coaches’, players’, administration’s, and fans’ confidence in each other, then you’ve got one more reason for pessimism.

New blood at point. Jimmy McKinney’s a shooting guard. A natural point guard will do wonders...be it Jason Horton or a ready Spencer Laurie. We have more options than in years past; somebody still has to stick here.

New blood everywhere, for that matter. Both on the court and on the bench. We blew a chance to see how far a talented, deep, senior-laden team could take us. In a way, though, if you’re going to have a disappointing season, you might as well have it while being led by a bunch of players who won’t be around anymore. This team does not bear the weight of last year’s expectations nor the weight of their failure. And the new blood on the coaching staff is a great thing. Speaking of which...

Coaching upgrade. Will Melvin and Meyer work out as assistant coaches? Who knows, but at first glance they’re an upgrade. Melvin has 20+ years more experience in NCAA basketball than Tony Harvey does or did. Meyer has 20+ years more experience in NCAA basketball than Lane Odom. Age doesn’t always equal wisdom, but experience can equal just that. Chemistry issues noted above could be a concern, but the staff has a couple more months of talking about philosophy and style before they have to break the team in on it. That might not be enough time, but there’s at least hope.

A "rejuvenated" Quin. Quin looked awful last season from the start. Usually, it takes him until at least mid-December to look awful. He said at the Meyer PC that he felt rejuvenated and excited. Not saying that will make any positive difference at all, but it sure can’t hurt.

Low expectations. I’m not going to go too deep on this one because, as I said before, the goal is to have high expectations AND meet them. Having low expectations isn’t a long-term goal, but it might be a short-term benefit.

The Big XII is rebuilding a bit. It hurts to say this, but Kansas will be good. Real good. They lose depth on the interior, but they bring in a starting five of 4- and 5-star freshmen. They’ll be a Top 2-3 team at the start of next season. It’ll be the most talent Bill Self has had at his disposal. But beyond that? Not much improvement among all the other teams.

OSU has to replace Tony Allen, Ivan McFarlin, and a couple bench players, but they return John Lucas, Daniel Bobik, Joey Graham, and bring in three pretty good freshmen. They’ll probably be the leader for preseason #2 in the conference. Texas will have all the talent in the world but will be relying on at least 2-3 freshmen to live up to their potential from day one. They could be really really good, but you never know for sure what will happen when you rely on freshmen. Oklahoma will have decent talent in the front and backcourt, but they realized last year just how much they miss the intangibles of the Hollis Price/Quannas White/Ebi Ere bunch. They’ll beat a couple teams they’re not supposed to beat, but the overall talent level of this club has dropped. Texas Tech loses Andre Emmett and will struggle to score. They’ll still have quick hands and run the Bobby Knight offense, but they will probably take a step back unless a go-to scorer is found (which isn’t unimaginable, but Knight has yet to recruit a good scorer to Lubbock...he inherited Emmett).

Iowa State will be totally reliant on Curtis Stinson and Will Blalock, which might not be a bad thing at all. Colorado loses David Harrison and Michel Morandais and won’t replace them with nearly that much talent. Kansas State loses nobody vital and replaces them with nobody vital. Nebraska will continue to shock a few teams when their shot is on and might make a legitimate push for the Top 5 or 6 in the conference (did I just say that?), but it’s not a given being that they lost Conklin, Drevo, and Nate Johnson. Baylor will continue to improve incrementally, but they’ll still be in the bottom 2-3, and Texas A&M is starting over, though there are a couple of potential stars that might make the rebuilding process at least a few minutes faster to complete.

Man oh man is this a long column. This is Sports Guy-esque, though it’s not officially Sports Guy-esque until I make references to the NBA, Hoosiers, and a reality show...and actually attempt humor.

Okay, last but not least...

Players who stepped up in the clutch last year are returning. Remember some of the (few) big-time moments this team had last year? Jason Conley and Thomas Gardner nailing clutch 3’s against OSU? Conley’s steal and dunk in the lingering seconds against Kansas (which didn’t prove to be the difference-maker that it should have been)? Linas Kleiza blocking the 3-point attempt of Brian Boddicker and causing a shot-clock violation? Jimmy McKinney making 106 free throws in overtime at Lloyd Noble? They’re coming back. Players on this team know how to make clutch plays, and they’ll have an opportunity to make more of them. They’ll HAVE to make more of them.

No more senior leadership, no more coaching continuity (for better or worse), no more big man depth, no more confidence in Quin Snyder...it’s easy to understand why some people think things could get pretty bad this year. However, with clutch players returning, a roster teeming with potential, new blood on the bench and on the floor, and a rebuilding Big XII conference, this team could legitimately finish anywhere between 2nd and 8th in the conference next year. While at some point, I want to not only have expectations, but also (god forbid) MEET them, I’ll have fun with unknowns for now. I was nervous from the start last season, and so were the players and coaches. This coming year, it’s time for us to just relax and watch this team just relax and play. And if they don’t play well...then we’ll probably get a whole new coaching staff to talk about next year!